Janata Dal To Be Biggest Casualty In Karnataka
There is a strong anti-Janata Dal sentiments prevailing in Karnatakas dry belt from Bidar on the northern tip to Kolar in the south.
In the 10 constituencies in the area-which went to the polls on February 22-there seems be mostly a straight fight between the BJP-Lok Shakti alliance and the rejuvenated Congress, with the ruling Janata Dal trailing a distant third. Four of the 10 constituencies have upper caste Vokkaligas in large numbers, while Lingayats and backward classes dominate the other six. In 1996, the Janata Dal had won six seats from here, while the BJP and the Congress won two each.
Seven seats witnessed a victory margin of less than three per cent. The BJP candidates, who won the Bidar and the Davangere seats, polled 33 per cent and 13.3 per cent votes more than their nearest rivals respectively, while the Janata Dals margin of victory in Koppal was 12.6 per cent.
The ruling Janata Dal has been hit by the minority votes and part of OBC votes returning to the Congress, thanks to the Sonia Gandhi factor, and R K Hegdes Lok Shakti splitting its votes.
This has been compounded by backward class leaders like R L Jalappa and K B Shanappa deserting the party, and the youth rooting for Atal Behari Vajpayee. An exasperated Janata Dal leadership, led by former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda and chief minister J H Patel, have had a frustrating time during campaigning in the region and on quite a few occasions were forced to end the meetings rather abruptly.
The two stalwarts have been blaming the media and poll analysts for their woes. Poll analysts have predicted a swing of 10-12 per cent against Janata Dal, which implies that the party could end up without even a single seat in the region.
Even in Koppal, Janata Dal candidate Basavaraja Rayareddy is finding it difficult to retain his seat, having incurred the wrath of his mentor, Ramakrishna Hegde, and then losing the confidence of Gowda. Even party leaders within this newly-created district love to hate him. Prime Minister I K Gujral, who was his only hope, addressed lacklustre and rather thinly attended meetings.
The Congress nominee and a senior backward class leader-cum-liquor baron H G Ramulu stands a bright chance to wrest the Koppal seat. Ramulu was a Lok Sabha member twice in the 1980s, and has a large following.
The Lok Shakti has fielded a Lingayat to ensure Rayareddys defeat. In fact, Hegde campaigned vigorously here not to get his nominee elected, but to get his erstwhile follower defeated at any cost. Hegde appealed to the people to defeat Rayareddy for having ditched him, much to the Ramulus delight.
Janata Dals Hanumantappa says in Bellary: It is our misfortune that all the ills of the past are fast catching up with us and making it difficult to counter it, leave alone neutralise it.
State Congress president Dharam Singh feels his party would win at least five seats and has a good chance in another two. The Congress hopes to retain Kolar and Chitradurga, while adding Chickaballapur, Raichur and Koppal to its tally. The party believes it has a fighting chance in Bellary and Gulbarga.
But, the Chitradurga seat held by the Janata Dal may go Lok Shaktis way with the BJP extending support to its allys nominee, Kondanda Ramaiah.
The Lok Shakti may also win the Bellary seat from the Congress as its nominee, N Thippanna, is riding high on the Vajpayee wave. Thippanna had lost the seat in the previous elections by a wafer thin margin of 4,489 votes. Lok Shaktis ally BJP is looking to bag the other three other seats Bidar, Tumkur, and Davangere.
Barring Gulbarga and Chickaballapur, the Janata Dal looks a pale shadow of its former self in the other constituencies going to the polls. In Gulbarga, the sitting MP Qamar-ul-Islam is holding tight thanks to the backing of the minorities. However, he too may end up losing to the BJP candidate.