Pakistan semis equation: Target, overs & Net runrate to pass NZ's NRR

Pakistan's semifinal qualification hinges on net run rate: Business Standard takes a look at target they can set, the overs required to finish the chase, and the margin needed to overtake Kiwis' NRR

Pakistan net run rate calculation when they chase or bat first

Anish Kumar Aditya Kaushik New Delhi

4 min read Last Updated : Feb 28 2026 | 9:19 PM IST

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The third semifinalist for the T20 World Cup 2026 will be confirmed today after the completion of the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka match at the Pallekele Stadium in Kandy.

The other two semifinalists are South Africa from Group 1 and England from Group 2.

Pakistan or New Zealand can be the third team, as the Men in Green still have a chance to qualify for the semifinals if they beat Sri Lanka.

Pakistan not only have to win the match but also have to win by 65 or more runs against Sri Lanka. Pakistan, batting first, posted 212 runs on the board, which means they need to restrict Sri Lanka to 147 or below to qualify for the semifinals.

New Zealand qualification scenarios:

If Pakistan lose, the Kiwis will qualify for the semifinals.
If Pakistan win the match against Sri Lanka after 13 overs, New Zealand will qualify.

Pakistan’s semifinal qualification hinges on net run rate: Business Standard takes a look at the target they can set, the overs required to finish the chase, and the margin needed to overtake the Kiwis' NRR

Pakistan's net run rate calculation when they set a target

Assumptions

Pakistan batting first and runs scored by them.
We are assuming Pakistan took 20 overs to set the target.

When Pakistan bats first today
Target set by Pak	Expression	Result
150	(164 + 150) / (20 + 20)	7.85
167	(164 + 167) / (20 + 20)	8.275
170	(164 + 170) / (20 + 20)	8.35
175	(164 + 175) / (20 + 20)	8.475

Pakistan conceded runs vs Eng and SL
Runs scored by SL (assuming SL all-out)	Expression	Intermediate	Result
85	(166 + 85) / (19.166 + 20)	251 / 39.166	6.41
102	(166 + 102) / (19.166 + 20)	268 / 39.166	6.84
105	(166 + 105) / (19.166 + 20)	271 / 39.166	6.91
110	(166 + 110) / (19.166 + 20)	276 / 39.166	7.046

Different target scenario set by Pak and their net run rate
Scenario	Pak net run rate
Target set 150	1.45
Target set 167	1.435
Target set 170	1.44
Target set 175	1.429

Pakistan net run rate calculation when they chase a target

Assumptions

Runs conceded by Pakistan and the net run rate by taking different targets set by SL or runs scored by Sri Lanka.
Remember, England scored 166 runs in 19.1 overs, which is converted to 19.166 for net run rate calculations.
Here, we are considering that Sri Lanka set a target after playing the full quota of 20 overs.

Calculation

Runs Made by Sri Lanka (SL)
SL Runs	Calculation	Total Runs (SL + 166)	Divided by 39.166	Result
150	(150 + 166) / 39.166	316	316 / 39.166	8.068
155	(155 + 166) / 39.166	321	321 / 39.166	8.195
160	(160 + 166) / 39.166	326	326 / 39.166	8.323
165	(165 + 166) / 39.166	331	331 / 39.166	8.451
170	(170 + 166) / 39.166	336	336 / 39.166	8.57
175	(175 + 166) / 39.166	341	341 / 39.166	8.7
180	(180 + 166) / 39.166	346	346 / 39.166	8.834
185	(185 + 166) / 39.166	351	351 / 39.166	8.96
190	(190 + 166) / 39.166	356	356 / 39.166	9.08
195	(195 + 166) / 39.166	361	361 / 39.166	9.21
200	(200 + 166) / 39.166	366	366 / 39.166	9.344

Assumption Pakistan net run rate when they chase different targets in 12.4 overs.

Net Run Rate Calculation
Target	Runs Scored Rate	Runs Conceded Rate	Pak Net NRR
150	9.612	8.068	1.544
155	9.765	8.195	1.57
160	9.91	8.323	1.587
165	10.071	8.451	1.62
170	10.224	8.57	1.654
175	10.37	8.706	1.664
180	10.53	8.834	1.696
185	10.683	8.96	1.723
190	10.83	9.08	1.75
195	10.95	9.21	1.78
200	11.14	9.344	1.796

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Pakistan semis equation: Target, overs & Net runrate to pass NZ's NRR

Pakistan's semifinal qualification hinges on net run rate: Business Standard takes a look at target they can set, the overs required to finish the chase, and the margin needed to overtake Kiwis' NRR

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