Explained: Pakistan, New Zealand's net run rate equation, semis scenarios
Why is Pakistan's net run rate negative despite a last-over defeat to England? And why is New Zealand's NRR 1.390 after a washout in Kandy? Business Standard explains the calculations.
Pakistan skipper Salman Agha with coach Mike Hesson (L-R)
The only way Pakistan can make it to the semifinal of the ICC T20 World Cup 2026 now is winning the match against Sri Lanka on Saturday at the Pallekele Stadium in Kandy. Pakistan's thinest hopes for a place in last four gets momentum after England defeated England by four wickets at the R Premadasa Stadium on Friday. Pakistan need to beat Sri Lanka by 65 runs or chase down a target in 12.4 Overs.
However, that alone will not be enough for Pakistan to reach the semifinal. Why? Because of their inferior net run rate.
Why is Pakistan’s net run rate in the negative despite losing to England in the final over? And why is New Zealand’s net run rate 1.39 even though the Kiwis shared a point with Pakistan after the washout in Kandy?
Pakistan semifinal qualification scenarios
Only path: Pakistan must defeat Sri Lanka.
Pakistan have to win their final Super 8 game against Sri Lanka on February 28 to stay in contention.
After New Zealand lost their final Super 8 match, they ended with three points from three matches. However, their strong net run rate (1.39) as compared to Pakistan's -0.461 means Pakistan need to win against Sri Lanka by 65 runs or chase down a target in 12.4 Overs. (Net run rate calculation and New Zealand’s revised NRR, if they lose the match today, are described below in the copy.)
Pakistan’s net run rate (-0.461) remains a concern. Even if both Pakistan and New Zealand finish on three points, the semifinal spot will be decided by NRR.
Therefore, Pakistan not only need a win but also a convincing margin.
New Zealand semifinal qualification scenarios
If New Zealand lose to England:
Kiwis ended Super 8 round with three points — the same maximum Pakistan can reach.
The second semifinal spot will then be decided by net run rate.
If the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka match is washed out:
A wash out in Kandy means both Pakistan and Sri Lanka will share a point each.
In this case Pakistan end up with 2 points behind New Zealand
That would be enough for Kiwis to qualify.
T20 World Cup 2026 Super 8 GROUP 2 points table
POS
TEAM
PLAYED
WON
LOST
N/R
TIED
Net RR
POINTS
Q 1
England
3
3
0
0
0
1.096
6
2
New Zealand
3
1
1
1
0
1.390
3
3
Pakistan
2
0
1
1
0
-0.461
1
4
Sri Lanka
2
0
2
0
0
-2.8
0
Business Standard takes a look at the net run rate calculations of Pakistan and New Zealand.
Pakistan net run rate calculation
Pakistan's first match in Super 8 was abandoned due to rain.
Pakistan split points with New Zealand – one each.
Runs scored by Pakistan in Super 8: 164 in 20 overs.
Runs conceded by Pakistan in Super 8: 166 in 19.1 overs.
Net run rate calculation Formula = (Total Runs Scored/Total overs played) - (Total runs conceded/Total overs bowled)
= 164 / 20 – 166 / 19.1666
= 8.2 – (8.66)
= -0.461
Note:
Here we divide the runs conceded by the total overs bowled.
For Pak, the number of overs bowled: 19.1 overs.
We take it to three decimal points, that is 19.1666, given that there are six balls in an over. Decimal system taken here 1/6.
