T20 WC Super 8 qualification scenario of Australia, Pakistan, Zimbabwe
With six teams already qualified for the Super 8 round, six teams across two groups are fighting for the remaining two spots in the next stage.
In the ICC T20 World Cup 2026, the race for Super 8 qualification is heating up, with Australia facing a potential elimination and as New Zealand became sixth team to qualify for the next stage.
Australia’s fate will be decided after the Zimbabwe vs Ireland match, which begins at 3 PM IST today.
Before looking at the qualification scenarios for the teams still in contention for the Super 8 round, here is a list of teams that have already qualified.
Teams qualified for Super 8 round
- West Indies
- India
- South Africa
- England
- Sri Lanka
- New Zealand
T20 World Cup 2026 Super 8 qualification rules
Two teams from each of the four groups will advance to the Super 8 stage. The qualifiers will be determined by the final group standings, with the top two sides on the points table securing progression to the next round.
With six teams already qualified for the Super 8 round, 6 teams across two groups are fighting for the remaining two spots in the next stage. Business Standard takes a look at the Super 8 qualification scenarios of all six teams in contention.
Group A
Teams qualified for Super 8: India
Team eliminated: Namibia
Pakistan Super 8 qualification scenario
Pakistan are placed third in Group A with two wins from three matches and four points. Despite being level on points with the USA, their net run rate of -0.403 has put them in a precarious position. With only one game remaining, qualification is not entirely in their hands.
How Pakistan can qualify for Super 8 round
As per the scenario in Group A, Pakistan will qualify for the Super 8 if they beat Namibia. A victory will take them to six points from four matches, ensuring they finish ahead of the USA and the Netherlands. However, if Pakistan lose to Namibia, they will be knocked out of the tournament. Their qualification is therefore straightforward — win and go through. Net run rate could come into play only if there is an unlikely tie on points combined with other results, but primarily, a win against Namibia guarantees their place.
USA Super 8 qualification scenario
USA are currently second in Group A, having played four matches with two wins and two losses. They have accumulated four points and hold a superior net run rate of 0.788 compared to Pakistan. Their position keeps them in contention, but qualification depends on other results.
How USA can qualify for Super 8 round
USA will qualify for the Super 8 if Namibia beat Pakistan. Since USA have completed their four group matches and remain on four points, a Pakistan loss would ensure USA finish in the top two alongside India. If Pakistan defeat Namibia, USA will be overtaken and eliminated despite their better net run rate. Therefore, USA’s fate hinges entirely on Namibia pulling off an upset against Pakistan in the final Group A fixture.
Netherlands Super 8 qualification scenario
The Netherlands are fourth in the Group A points table with one win and two losses from three matches. They have two points and a net run rate of -1.352. While still mathematically alive, their qualification chances are extremely slim and dependent on multiple favourable outcomes.
How Netherlands can qualify for Super 8 round
The Netherlands can qualify only if Namibia beat Pakistan and they themselves defeat India by a massive margin — either by 140 or more runs while batting first, or by chasing the target with 17 or more overs to spare. Such a result would significantly improve their net run rate and potentially push them into the top two. This scenario requires both a Namibia victory over Pakistan and an extraordinary win against India, making it the most difficult qualification path among the teams still in contention.
Group B
Teams qualified for Super 8: Sri Lanka
Team eliminated: Oman
Zimbabwe Super 8 qualification scenario
Zimbabwe are placed second in Group B with two wins from two matches. They have four points, the same as Sri Lanka, and a strong net run rate of 1.984. With an unbeaten record so far, Zimbabwe are in a commanding position and firmly in control of their qualification prospects.
How Zimbabwe can qualify for Super 8 round
Zimbabwe will qualify for the Super 8 if they beat either Ireland or Sri Lanka in their remaining matches. A win in either fixture will secure their place in the next round. If they lose both games, net run rate (NRR) will come into play to determine qualification. Their unbeaten start has given them a cushion, but they still need at least one more positive result to avoid relying on NRR calculations and other outcomes in the group.
Australia Super 8 qualification scenario
Australia are third in Group B with one win and one loss from two matches. They have two points and a healthy net run rate of 1.1. With matches still to play, Australia remain in contention but are dependent on other results to strengthen their chances.
How Australia can qualify for Super 8 round
Australia will qualify if Zimbabwe lose to both Ireland and Sri Lanka, and Australia beat Oman. In that case, qualification will be decided on net run rate. This means Australia not only need a win against Oman but must also ensure a strong margin of victory to improve their NRR. Their fate is therefore partly dependent on Zimbabwe faltering in their remaining fixtures, making the group scenario tightly contested heading into the final matches.
Ireland Super 8 qualification scenario
Ireland are fourth in the Group B points table with one win and two losses from three matches. They have two points and a net run rate of 0.15. With only one group game remaining, Ireland face a must-win situation to stay alive in the tournament.
How Ireland can qualify for Super 8 round
Ireland will qualify if they beat Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka also defeat Zimbabwe. In this scenario, qualification will be decided on net run rate. Ireland must therefore not only win their remaining fixture but aim for a convincing margin to boost their NRR. They also need results elsewhere to go in their favour. Their path to the Super 8 is narrow and depends on both their own performance and Zimbabwe losing both remaining matches.
Group D
Teams qualified for Super 8: South Africa, New Zealand
Team eliminated: Afghanistan, Canada, UAE
New Zealand Super 8 qualification scenario before their match against Canada
New Zealand are second in Group D with two wins from three matches. They have four points and a net run rate of 0.701. With one group match remaining, they are well placed to secure qualification but are not yet guaranteed a spot in the Super 8.
How New Zealand can qualify for Super 8 round
New Zealand will qualify for the Super 8 if they beat Canada in their final group match. A win will take them to six points and confirm their progression alongside South Africa. If they lose to Canada, net run rate (NRR) will come into play. In that case, their fate could depend on other results and overall NRR comparisons with Afghanistan and the United Arab Emirates.
Afghanistan Super 8 qualification scenario before NZ vs CAN match today
Afghanistan are third in the Group D points table with one win and two losses from three matches. They have two points and a net run rate of -0.215. With only one fixture left, Afghanistan remain in contention but must rely on favourable outcomes.
How Afghanistan can qualify for Super 8 round
Afghanistan will qualify if Canada beat New Zealand and Afghanistan beat Canada. In that scenario, qualification will be decided on net run rate. Afghanistan therefore need a win in their remaining match and must hope New Zealand lose to Canada. If those results occur, NRR will determine which team advances to the Super 8, making margins of victory crucial in the final standings.
UAE Super 8 qualification scenario
The United Arab Emirates are fourth in Group D with one win and two losses from three matches. They have two points and a net run rate of -0.797. Although still mathematically alive, their qualification path is dependent on multiple results.
How UAE can qualify for Super 8 round
UAE will qualify if Canada beat New Zealand and UAE beat South Africa. If these results occur, net run rate will come into play to decide the second team from the group. UAE must therefore secure a win against South Africa and hope Canada defeat New Zealand. Even then, qualification will depend on achieving a superior NRR compared to New Zealand and Afghanistan.
Canada Super 8 qualification scenario before NZ vs CAN match today
Canada are bottom of the Group D points table with two losses from two matches. They have no points and a net run rate of -1.526. Despite their position, they are not yet eliminated and still have matches remaining.
How Canada can qualify for Super 8 round
Canada will qualify if they beat New Zealand and Afghanistan also beat Canada. In that case, qualification will be decided on net run rate. Canada must first secure a victory over New Zealand to stay in contention. If Afghanistan then defeat Canada, the three teams could be tied on points, with NRR determining the final Super 8 spot. Canada’s chances therefore depend on both results and significant improvement in net run rate.