Fossil emissions to hit record this year, India's share to rise: Report

Atmospheric CO2 levels are projected to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024

India's fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 4.6 per cent in 2024, while China could see a marginal rise of 0.2 per cent, according to new research by a group of international scientists.

As the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, discussed raising trillions of dollars to tackle climate change, the group of scientists known as the "Global Carbon Project" warned that emissions from fossil fuels -- the main driver of warming -- could hit a record 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, up 0.8 percent from 2023 levels.

This comes despite rapid growth in renewable energy and a landmark agreement at COP28 in Dubai last year to move away from fossil fuels.

The "Global Carbon Budget 2024" report said total global CO2 emissions are set to go up from 40.6 billion tons in 2023 to 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, which is on course to become the warmest year on record.

"The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study, said.

The 'Global Carbon Project' team said India, the world's most populous country and fastest-growing major economy, may see its fossil fuel emissions rise by 4.6 percent.

According to a UN report released last month, India's greenhouse gas emissions surged by 6.1 per cent in 2023, contributing to 8 per cent of the global total.

However, the country's historical contribution to global CO2 emissions stands at only 3 per cent. India's per capita emissions remain low at 2.9 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e), far below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e.

India, the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to reach net zero emissions (balancing emissions with removals) by 2070 and aims to achieve 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030.

China's emissions, which make up 32 per cent of the global total, are likely to increase slightly by 0.2 per cent, though there is a chance they could decline, according to the data released on Wednesday.

Emissions from the United States and the European Union, which contribute 13 per cent and 7 per cent of the global total, are both set to decline, with drops of 0.6 per cent for the US and 3.8 per cent for the EU.

Emissions from the rest of the world, which together account for 38 per cent of global emissions, could see a rise of 1.1 per cent.

The researchers said that in 2024, coal emissions will likely increase by 0.2 per cent, oil by 0.9 per cent, and gas by 2.4 per cent, globally.

Coal, oil, and gas contribute 41 per cent, 32 per cent, and 21 per cent of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively. However, given the uncertainty in projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024, they said.

The report also pointed out that emissions from international aviation and shipping, which account for 3 per cent of global emissions and are tracked separately from national or regional totals, are expected to rise by 7.8 per cent in 2024. However, these emissions will still be 3.5 per cent below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

Globally, emissions from land-use changes, like deforestation, have dropped by 20 per cent over the past decade but are expected to rise in 2024. Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and new forest planting now offsets about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation, they added.

Technology-based CO2 removal accounts for only a tiny fraction -- around one-millionth -- of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

The report said that emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which continued into 2024) and severe drought in Brazil.

Land and ocean carbon sinks continued to absorb around half of the total carbon emissions, despite being negatively affected by climate change.