Outbound shipments from India to China surge to $12.22 bn in Apr-Nov

Trend indicates Beijing is shifting its sourcing away from US, say officials

Outbound shipments from India to China grew by nearly a third to $12.22 billion during April-November 2025, compared to the same period in the previous year, signalling early signs of a shift from the American market.

 

China is India’s fourth largest export destination, accounting for 4 per cent of the country’s total exports.

 

In November alone, exports to China witnessed 90 per cent growth to $2.2 billion.

 

While disaggregated data for November is not available, during April-October, the growth was driven by sharp increases across key sectors such as petroleum products, electronics and marine exports.

 

The growth trend in China’s imports from India over the last three-four months indicates a shift away from the United States (US), a senior government official told Business Standard.

 

After reaching $21.26 billion in FY22, India’s exports to China gradually declined to $14.25 billion in FY25.

 

Another official said that the sharp increase highlights strengthening trade momentum with China. This is because of higher demand across key commodity segments and improved export performance over the period.

 

Exports of petroleum products saw the biggest jump. It more than doubled with a growth of 121.25 per cent during April-October to $1.62 billion from the same period in the previous year.

 

This was followed closely by electronic goods, registering 158.95 per cent growth to $1.35 billion, reflecting rising demand for electronics. According to an internal analysis done by the department of commerce, marine products saw a steady increase with 19 per cent growth to $0.85 billion.

 

Exports of oil meal, mica and coal, among others, also contributed to the overall rise.

 

Trade economist Biswajit Dhar said that there’s a clear signal that China is certainly moving away from the US.

 

“Clear signs have been evident since Donald Trump’s first term. In 2017, China’s exports to the US were 19 per cent of its total exports. By November this year, it was down to 10 per cent. Similarly, US imports from China declined from 20 per cent in 2017 to about 9 per cent now. With or without Trump (in the office), China has been shifting away from the US and seeking new markets – and India is among them,” Dhar said.