Q2 GDP growth low but 2nd half numbers expected to be better: DEA secretary

Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth on Monday said second quarter GDP growth at 5.4 per cent is lower than the potential but exuded confidence that the second half to be better.

Several high-frequency indicators in the month of October are pointing towards that, he told reporter here.

Seth also said that quarterly estimates have been revised upwards in the past when full GDP numbers are available.

"Numbers are lower than what our potential is but not alarming...GDP growth will be much higher in the third and fourth quarter," he said.

The Economic Survey projected India's GDP to grow at 6.5-7 per cent in 2024-25, down from a high of 8.2 per cent in the the preceding financial year.

India's economic growth slowed to near two-year low of 5.4 per cent in the July-September quarter of this fiscal due to poor performance of manufacturing and mining sectors as well as weak consumption.

The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 8.1 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 fiscal and 6.7 per cent in first quarter of current fiscal (April-June 2024).

The previous low level of GDP growth at 4.3 per cent was recorded in the third quarter (October-December 2022) of financial year 2022-23.

According to the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Friday, the growth of agriculture sector GVA (Gross Value Added) accelerated to 3.5 per cent in the latest July-September quarter from 1.7 per cent a year ago.

The GVA in the manufacturing sector slowed to 2.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal compared to an expansion of 14.3 per cent in the year-ago period.