RBI MPC: Policy likely to ease through liquidity if not rates, say analysts

The Reserve Bank of India may ease monetary conditions on Friday by reducing banks' cash reserve ratios after economic growth slowed to a seven-quarter low, but inflationary pressures may make it reluctant to cut interest rates just yet, analysts said.

The six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) is largely expected to hold the key policy rate steady at 6.5 per cent for the eleventh straight meeting, but a few economists have forecast a 25 basis points (bps) cut following the recent growth numbers.

GDP expanded 5.4 per cent in the September quarter, the slowest pace in seven quarters and sharply below the polled estimate of 6.5 per cent.

"We maintain our out-of-consensus call for a 25 bps repo rate cut to 6.25 per cent, due to weaker growth and a benign one-year forward inflation outlook," economists at Nomura said in a note.

"We do not see any policy tradeoffs from lowering rates at this juncture. We continue to expect 100 bps of cumulative cuts by mid-2025 to a terminal rate of 5.50 per cent," they added.

If the central bank does cut rates, it would be the first time since May 2020.

India's benchmark 10-year bond yield has dropped 12 bps to 6.68 per cent since the GDP data last week, while overnight indexed swap rates, the gauge for future interest rates, have seen a 20 bps decline, suggesting markets are expecting some policy easing.

However, cutting rates to boost growth won't be as easy an option. Annual retail inflation quickened to 6.21 per cent in October, breaching the central bank's tolerance band for the first time in more than a year.

The RBI may infuse liquidity via a possible 50 bps cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut on Dec 6, and bring out other instruments over the next few months, economists at HSBC said in a note.

"It's time to act, strategically," they said.

CRR is the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as cash. Reducing it by 50 basis points would free up 1.1 trillion rupees ($12.98 billion) for fresh bank lending and push down market interest rates.

A cut in CRR, currently at 4.5 per cent, would be the first since March 2020.

"If there is no action on rates or liquidity, we could see an immediate sell-off in bonds, with the benchmark bond yield rising to 6.75 per cent levels and consolidating around that," said Vikas Goel, managing director at PNB Gilts.

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