Decade-long bull run: Ventura explains why gold may surge to $4,800 in 2026

The runway is set for the Year 2026 to have an extended rally in Gold

Gold’s decade-long bull run may be nowhere near its peak. According to brokerage firm Ventura, the stage is set for 2026 to deliver an extended rally, powered by a cocktail of macroeconomic pressures, central bank demand, and expectations of aggressive US Federal Reserve rate cuts. The firm projects a potential gold price range of $4,600–$4,800, signalling that the precious metal’s bullish story is “far from over.”

 

Several long-term forces are now converging to reinforce gold’s status as a safe-haven asset as sentiment turns risk-averse across global markets.

 

A Perfect Storm for Gold: Central Banks, Inflation and Economic Anxiety

 

Ventura highlights four dominant drivers:

 

• Relentless central bank buying as gold becomes the second-largest reserve asset globally
• Persistent inflation that is proving tougher to tame
• Widening US fiscal deficits and concerns over economic slowdown
• Expectations of ~75 bps Fed rate cuts in 2026, making gold more attractive versus dollar assets
• In India, gold prices are 15% higher than Dubai due to import duties and a weaker rupee, encouraging cross-border bullion flows and reinforcing domestic tightness in supply.

 

Nine Straight Quarters of New Highs 

Gold has now logged new highs for nine consecutive quarters, including Q4 2025 — an unmistakable sign of structural upward momentum.

 

The rally has also coincided with:

 

• Rising geopolitical risks
• A weakening US dollar
• High global debt levels
• Increasing investor preference for diversifying away from fiat currency

 

The report states bluntly: gold’s epic rally reflects a deterioration in global currency confidence.

 

Recent Price Action Shows Resilience, Not Weakness

 

• After hitting a record $4,398 on October 20, 2025, gold entered a consolidation phase:
• Corrected 11% to a low of $3,891 on Oct 28
• Rebounded strongly to $4,299 in December (a six-week high)

 

This rebound has come despite treasury yields rising to two-week highs — a signal that long-term demand for gold remains intact.

 

The December rally was driven heavily by expectations of a Dec 9–10 Fed rate cut, with markets betting on softer inflation and cooling labour data giving the US central bank room to ease.

 

Ventura notes that current market action reflects profit-taking and mild pullback, not a reversal:

“This is consolidation, not liquidation,” the firm states, adding that dips are likely to be bought aggressively.

 

Key Support & Resistance Levels to Watch

 

Ventura outlines the near-term price map:

 

Support Levels:

 

$4,202

$4,190

$4,160

$4,114

 

Resistance Levels:

 

$4,255

$4,265

$4,300

 

Breakouts could trigger moves to $4,381–$4,441

 

Gold, the firm says, could regain strong support around $4,200, or even $4,056 — the major floor from which the current rally began on Nov 24, 2025.

 

Corrections Will Come — But the Bull Cycle Isn’t Over

 

Ventura warns that with gold making newer highs, the probability of short-term corrections increases.

Triggers could include:

 

• Fewer-than-expected Fed rate cuts
• Easing geopolitical tensions
• Reduced global risk aversion
• Commodity cycles are notoriously long:
• Gold is now in its 10th year of a bull run
• Silver’s uptrend is 5.5 years old
• The risk of “boom–bust” phases returning cannot be ignored.

 

What Could Propel Gold Even Higher in 2026?

 

Ventura identifies the most critical long-term catalysts:

 

1. Structural Central Bank Demand

 

A parabolic surge could occur if central banks accelerate buying — pulling in institutional and retail investors seeking alternatives to weakening fiat currencies.

 

2. ETF Demand Fuelled by Geopolitics & Scarcity

 

Global ETF gold holdings sit near a three-year high, while COMEX inventories have fallen 20% from their peak — a sign of persistent physical tightness. 

With gold ETFs being 70x smaller than the US Treasury market, even moderate allocation shifts can trigger outsized price moves.

 

3. Soaring Global Debt Levels

 

US debt has passed $38 trillion, and other major economies like China, India, and the EU are also expanding deficit financing — increasing fears of a global credit crunch.

 

4. Falling Real Yields & Depreciating US Dollar

 

Lower short-term rates reduce the cost of holding gold and weaken the dollar — historically the most powerful tailwinds for gold.

 

5. Risk-Off Sentiment in Global Markets

 

Shaky stock market performance, rising VIX levels and geopolitical tensions continue to funnel investors toward safe havens.