Plastic has become an integral part of modern life. In what we buy, how we live, plastic is everywhere, and now it is increasingly impacting how healthy or unhealthy our future might be. A new global study warns that the health damage caused by plastics could more than double by 2040 if current patterns of production and disposal continue.
The study, Global health burdens of plastics: a lifecycle assessment model from 2016 to 2040, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, finds these harms come not just from plastic waste, but from emissions released at every stage of plastics’ life, from fossil fuel extraction and manufacturing to disposal, burning and pollution.
Using a first-of-its-kind global model, researchers estimate that the plastics system could be responsible for 83 million years of healthy life lost worldwide between 2016 and 2040, driven largely by climate change, air pollution and toxic chemical exposure.
What does the Lancet study assess across the plastics lifecycle?
This research takes a full lifecycle view of plastics, rather than focusing only on waste or recycling. It studies scenarios between 2016 and 2040 by tracking plastics from raw material extraction (mostly oil and gas), through production and transport, to recycling, landfilling, open burning and environmental pollution.
The researchers measure health damage using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a standard public health metric that captures years of healthy life lost due to illness or premature death.
How large is the current global health impact of plastics?
According to the study, in 2016 alone, the global plastics system was linked to an estimated 2.1 million DALYs, meaning 2.1 million healthy years of life lost worldwide in just one year.
These harms were largely driven by:
- Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions
- Air pollution, especially fine particulate matter linked to respiratory and heart disease
- Toxic chemicals associated with cancers and non-communicable diseases
Why could plastics-related health harms double by 2040?
The study warns that under a business-as-usual scenario where
plastic production, consumption and waste management continue with no major policy shifts, the annual
health harms will rise to 4.5 million DALYs by 2040.
The reasons for this rise are predicted to be following:
- Global plastic production continues to rise and may not peak until after 2100
- Most plastics are still made from fossil fuels
- Waste management systems, especially in low- and middle-income countries, are overwhelmed
- Open burning of plastic waste remains common, releasing toxic fumes
Which stage of the plastics lifecycle causes the most health damage?
The study finds that primary plastic production, or the making of virgin plastic, is the single biggest driver of health damage in all scenarios.
In fact, emissions from producing new plastic account for over 60 per cent of total health harms, followed by the open burning of plastic waste, according to the researchers.
Can recycling or material alternatives cut health risks?
The study says recycling and better waste collection help, but on their own, they barely dent the overall health burden.
Scenarios focused only on increasing recycling or waste collection reduced health harms by just 8–10 per cent compared to business-as-usual. Recycling processes themselves consume energy and can release pollutants, especially chemical recycling, which was linked to additional health impacts due to high energy use.
The study also found that alternatives such as paper, compostable plastics and reusable glass also carry their own lifecycle emissions, from energy use, transport and washing. Some bio-based plastics, such as polylactide, were associated with significant health impacts due to energy-intensive production.
The study shows that the biggest gains came from eliminating unnecessary plastic, rather than replacing it one-for-one with another material.
What measures could actually reduce plastics-related health harms?
The most effective solution that researchers find is a full system change, combining:
- Deep cuts in virgin plastic production
- Improved waste collection and disposal
- Reduced open burning
- Increased recycling where appropriate
- Limited, carefully assessed material substitution
This combined approach could reduce health harms by 43 per cent by 2040 compared to business-as-usual. But even then, the burden does not disappear entirely.
With more than 175 countries negotiating a Global Plastics Treaty, initiated in 2022, the findings of the Lancet study add urgency to calls for deep cuts in plastic production and stronger
global regulation.
 "Global health risks from plastics may double by 2040, warns Lancet study")
