India's Covid cases surge over 15-fold in 10 days: What's behind the spike?

Covid-19 cases in India soar from 257 to over 3,900 in 10 days; Kerala leads, government urges calm as new variants drive infections

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India is witnessing a significant resurgence in Covid-19 cases, with active infections rising from 257 on May 22 to 3,961 by Monday, June 2, a more than 15-fold increase in just ten days, according to the data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW).

What is driving the sudden surge in Covid-19 cases?

Health authorities attribute the rapid increase to the emergence of new, more transmissible Omicron sub-variants, specifically NB.1.8.1 and NF.7, predominantly affecting southern and western India. These variants have led to a rise in cases, especially in densely populated urban areas.

 

Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) Director General Dr Rajiv Bahl, mentioned in an interaction with media that the uptick began in southern states, followed by western and now northern regions. The ICMR is closely monitoring the situation through the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP), he said. 

Bahl also said, “The variants we have sequenced from South and West India are not much severe. 4 variants have been discovered - LF.7 series, XFG series, JN.1 series and NB.1.8.1 series in the same order. We are sequencing the samples from other areas to check for more new variants... The cases are not very severe and people should not worry, but only stay vigilant.”

How significant is the increase in Covid-19 cases?

The active case count has escalated from 257 on May 22 to 3,961 by June 2, marking an approximate 1,441 per cent increase over ten days. This sharp rise underscores the need for heightened vigilance and adherence to public health measures.

What are the govt and health authorities saying?

The MoHFW acknowledges the surge but urges the public not to panic, emphasising that most cases are mild. Hospitals have been advised to maintain readiness, ensuring the availability of oxygen, ventilators, and essential medicines.

 

The ICMR continues to monitor the situation and has not issued any new guidelines as of now. However, they stress the importance of vaccination, mask-wearing, and avoiding crowded places to curb the spread.

Which states are reporting the highest number of active cases?

Kerala remains the most affected state, accounting for a significant portion of the new cases. As of June 2, the states with the highest number of active Covid-19 cases are:

• Kerala: 1,435 cases
• Maharashtra: 506 cases
• Delhi: 483 cases
• Gujarat: 338 cases
• West Bengal: 331 cases
• Karnataka: 253 cases
• Tamil Nadu: 189 cases
• Uttar Pradesh: 157 cases

What is the severity of the new cases?

The majority of new infections present mild symptoms, including sore throat, low-grade fever, congestion, fatigue, and mild gastrointestinal discomfort. Hospitalisations have not seen a significant increase, but the elderly and individuals with pre-existing health conditions are advised to exercise caution.

How is Covid-19 detected through testing?

“Standard real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests are used for diagnosis,” explains Dr Niranjan Patil, AVP at Metropolis Healthcare. “If a sample tests positive, it is then sent for genomic sequencing to identify the specific variant, such as JN.1.”  Main testing options include:

• RT-PCR (gold standard, accurate but takes 24–48 hours)
• Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs) (faster but less sensitive)
• Multiplex PCR tests (such as BioFire, QIAstat) that check for Covid-19 along with other respiratory viruses

Test costs: As per government capping, most labs charge between ₹500–₹800 for RT-PCR. Multiplex tests are more expensive.

Should you be worried about the resurgence of Covid-19?

According to Soumya Swaminathan, former chief scientist of the World Health Organization (WHO) and chairperson of the M S Swaminathan Research Foundation, there is no reason to fear Covid-19 due to the immunity people have acquired over the last few years.

 

She said that the widespread use of vaccines, and in some cases, booster shots, has provided immunity. As a result, even if someone contracts the virus, symptoms will likely be mild, such as a two-day fever, cough, headache, and body aches. 

What precautions should the public take?

Health authorities recommend the following measures:

• Continue wearing masks in crowded or enclosed spaces
• Maintain hand hygiene and physical distancing
• Ensure vaccinations are up to date, including booster doses
• Avoid unnecessary travel and large gatherings
• Seek medical attention if experiencing symptoms consistent with Covid-19

Although the new variants are genetically clever, doctors say they are not necessarily more severe. Still, their ability to evade immunity is what makes them tricky. “The current variants are not more severe than past variants, but are more transmissible. That’s why it’s causing concern across Asian countries,” said Dr Sandeep Budhiraja, Group Medical Director – Max Healthcare & Senior Director – Institute of Internal Medicine.  Doctors underscore that staying informed through official channels and adhering to public health guidelines without panicking remain crucial in managing the current surge.  For more health updates, follow #HealthWithBS 

This content is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional medical advice.