H-1B visa 2026: Lottery may end with preference for high pay, high skills

Trump unveils plan to reshape H-1B lottery by prioritising higher wages, alongside a $100,000 visa fee and a Bill seeking to scrap OPT for foreign graduates

In another setback for foreign professionals, the Trump administration on Tuesday released a proposal to overhaul the H-1B visa selection process, favouring higher-paid and higher-skilled workers. The plan, published in the Federal Register, comes just days after the White House introduced a $100,000 fee for new H-1B visas.

 

According to the notice, if demand exceeds the annual statutory cap of 85,000 visas, priority would be given to applications offering higher wages. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said the change is intended to shield American workers from “unfair wage competition.”

 

What stays the same, according to the H-1B visa overhaul proposals?

 

1. USCIS must still respect the numerical cap (e.g. 65,000 visa limit plus 20,000 Masters-exemption).

2. Exemptions (for instance, for certain research institutions, non-profits, etc.) will remain as they are.

3. The prevailing wage determination rules under Department of Labor and the labour condition application (LCA) rules remain untouched in substance.

4. The registration requirement framework (registering electronically, selection notice, then filing petitions) stays broadly similar.

 

What would likely be the effect of H-1B visa overhaul?

 

If adopted in its current form:

 

1. Offers with higher wages would have a statistically better chance of being selected.

2. Jobs that pay modest wages or are entry level would not be excluded, but would have lower relative probability.

3. Employers might feel pressure to propose higher wages than originally intended to improve their odds. 

 

A shift in the lottery system

 

At present, the H-1B lottery is random when applications outnumber available slots. The proposed regulation would introduce wage tiers, ensuring roles with higher salaries have a better chance of being picked.

 

The Federal Register notice indicated the rules could be in place as early as the 2026 lottery cycle, ahead of the March registration period.

 

Annual cap: 85,000 visas

65,000 for general applicants

20,000 for those with US advanced degrees

 

“If the rule is substantially similar to the 2021 rule, cap-subject H-1B petitions filed for entry-level positions would likely have next-to-no chance of being selected. This would undoubtedly harm foreign nationals who are recent graduates,” Joel Yanovich, immigration attorney at the Murthy Law Firm told Business Standard.

 

Four wage levels

 

The US Department of Labor classifies wages into four bands:

 

Level 1: Entry-level pay

Level 2: Some experience

Level 3: Experienced with advanced skills

Level 4: Highly specialised senior roles

 

Under Trump’s earlier plan in 2021, top-tier jobs were prioritised, leaving the lowest level with slim chances.

 

Economic impact forecast

 

DHS estimated that total wages paid to H-1B workers would reach $502 million in the financial year 2026, beginning October 1.

 

But the notice also warned that 5,200 small businesses relying on H-1B workers would face an economic blow from reduced access to labour.

 

US Citizenship and Immigration Services will open a 30-day public comment period from Wednesday.

 

$100,000 visa fee causes a scramble

 

The administration announced on Friday that companies would need to pay $100,000 per year for each new H-1B visa. The clarification that the fee applies only to fresh visas came after warnings from major technology firms that holders abroad should rush back to the US.

 

Political pressure builds in Congress

 

Alongside the administration’s proposals, lawmakers are also seeking to toughen rules. Senator Jim Banks introduced the American Tech Workforce Act last week, which proposes sweeping changes.

 

“This Bill puts American workers first,” said Banks. “Corporations rigged the system to flood the country with cheap foreign labour and drive down wages.”

 

The Bill would:

 

• Scrap the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme that currently benefits nearly half a million foreign graduates, many of them Indian

• Set a new H-1B wage floor of $110,000, adjustable for inflation, or equal to US peers in the same role—rising as high as $150,000

• Restrict third-party staffing by limiting visa validity to one year when workers are placed at client sites

 

Indian students fear end of OPT

 

The possible removal of OPT has alarmed many students. According to a Business Standard online poll with nearly 1,200 participants, 78 per cent said they would not consider studying in the US if OPT ended, while 22 per cent said they would still pursue the opportunity.

 

Optional Practical Training allows international students with F-1 visas to work in the US in roles linked to their studies, offering a crucial pathway to employment after graduation.

 

Tech firms in spotlight

 

Major employers have also come under scrutiny. Microsoft, which cut 15,000 US jobs this year while continuing to sponsor H-1B workers, has been cited by critics as evidence of structural misuse. Opponents say this creates a “shadow economy” of subcontractor-run sweatshops, many linked to Indian outsourcing firms.