'5,500 H-1B visa jobs may go monthly, Indians hit hardest': What's at stake

H-1B Visa Overhaul: A new $100,000 fee on H-1B visas could cut up to 5,500 immigrant jobs a month, with Indian tech workers most exposed, economists warn

Job Cut in US: The White House’s new $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications could reduce work authorisations for immigrants by as many as 5,500 a month, according to an analysis by JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists.

 

Abiel Reinhart and Michael Feroli wrote in a note that while the number of affected workers is “fairly small” in the context of the overall US labour market, technology companies and immigrants from India stand to feel the greater impact.

 

Indian workers most affected by New new $100,000 fee on H-1B

 

Computer-related occupations made up nearly two-thirds of H-1B approvals in financial year 2024. About half of those were for professional, scientific, and technical services roles. Indians accounted for 71 per cent of all approvals.

 

 

Of the 141,000 petitions for new employment approved last year, 65,000 were processed abroad. “If all of them were to stop, it would reduce work authorisation for immigrants by up to 5,500 per month, unless immigrants are able to use other visa categories to get employment,” wrote Reinhart and Feroli.

 

Loujaina Abdelwahed, senior economist at Revelio Labs, warned the impact could be even starker. “The dramatic increase in fees is effectively equivalent to dismantling the H-1B system, potentially eliminating up to 140,000 new jobs per year — about 10,000 per month — in US companies that depend on skilled foreign talent,” she said.

 

US labour market pressures

 

The fee hike comes at a time when hiring has slowed in the United States. Employers have added an average of just 29,000 payrolls per month over the past three months. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that reflected a “marked slowing” in both supply and demand for workers, in part due to lower immigration. 

 

India sees an opportunity

 

Some in India believe the policy could work in their favour. Professor V. Kamakoti, director of the Indian Institute of Technology Madras, described the move as a “blessing in disguise.”

 

“I see this as a blessing in disguise and we must thank President Trump for it. We must take full advantage of this,” said Kamakoti, speaking to ANI.

 

Amitabh Kant, former G20 sherpa and ex-CEO of Niti Aayog, shared a similar view on X. “By slamming the door on global talent, America pushes the next wave of labs, patents, innovation and startups to Bangalore and Hyderabad, Pune and Gurgaon. India’s finest doctors, engineers, scientists, innovators have an opportunity to contribute to India’s growth and progress towards #ViksitBharat. America’s loss will be India’s gain,” he wrote.

 

American immigration attorney Charles Kuck told Business Standard the picture was more complicated. “While the H-1B visa fee hike in the short term would not be beneficial for India, all that brainpower staying in India will lift the economy,” he said.

 

Concerns of bias on Indian H-1B Visa

 

Critics in the United States have suggested the new fee unfairly targets Indians, who already make up more than 70 per cent of all H-1B visa holders.

 

David Bier of the libertarian Cato Institute wrote on X, “Indian H-1Bs contributed an unfathomable amount to America: 100s of billions in taxes, 10s of billions more in fees, trillions in services. Among the most peaceful, intelligent, interesting people to grace our shores. And what do we give back? Demonisation and discrimination.”

 

He added, “We have a set of laws mandating discriminatory treatment at every stage of the legal immigration process, particularly for Indians. They’ve been barred from adjusting to permanent residence for decades based on nothing more than their birthplace.”

 

Alex Nowrasteh, also from the Cato Institute, echoed that concern. “It’s abominable how this government treats Indians. Some of the most peaceful, hard working, intelligent, and successful people in history. The highest incomes, lowest incarceration rates, and incredible entrepreneurs. We’re lucky to have them and our government just hates,” he wrote.