US visa curbs bite: Universities fear 40% fall in international students

Universities brace for enrolment drops of up to 40 per cent as visa delays, travel bans and stricter scrutiny disrupt the new academic year

As the new academic year begins at most universities across the United States, many international students are starting their courses against a backdrop of anxiety, with the Trump administration continuing its crackdown on higher education and immigration.

 

At the University of Central Missouri, one student after another reported struggling to get a visa this summer, with many unable to even secure an interview, Associated Press (AP) reported. The result has been stark: Half as many new international graduate students arrived for autumn classes compared with last year.

 

Roger Best, president of Central Missouri, said the impact on the university’s finances has been immediate. “We aren’t able to subsidise domestic students as much when we have fewer international students who are bringing revenue to us,” he told AP.

 

The university, which has an endowment of only $65 million, relies heavily on international enrolment, which typically contributes nearly a quarter of its tuition income  .

 

Fears over dwindling numbers

 

Colleges across the US are unsettled by the signs of a decline. Institutions with small endowments and large numbers of foreign students have little protection against a sudden drop in tuition revenue. An AP analysis found that more than 100 colleges with endowments of less than $250,000 per student depend on international enrolment for at least 20 per cent of their intake. The group includes small Christian colleges as well as larger universities such as Northeastern and Carnegie Mellon.

 

Forecasts suggest that enrolment could fall by as much as 40 per cent this year, with severe consequences not only for college budgets but also for the wider US economy.

 

Visa scrutiny tightens

 

The administration has pressed colleges to limit numbers of foreign students and increased scrutiny of visas. Appointments were put on hold for weeks earlier this year as officials introduced new checks, including monitoring applicants’ social media.

 

On Wednesday, the Department of Homeland Security said it would propose a rule to restrict how long foreign students can remain in the US. The move follows other measures, including deportations of students involved in pro-Palestinian activism.

 

Justin Gest, professor of politics at George Mason University, told AP the changes are hitting universities hard. “Foreign students are not eligible for federal financial aid and often pay full price for tuition double or even triple the in-state rate paid by domestic students at public universities,” he said.

 

Gest added: “To put it more dollars and cents-wise, if an international student comes in and pays $80,000 a year in tuition, that gives universities the flexibility to offer lower fees and more scholarship money to American students.” 

 

Colleges cutting costs

 

Central Missouri, which has around 12,800 students, has already cut a cost-of-living raise for employees, delayed infrastructure projects and searched for further savings to offset the decline. Other small colleges are facing similar challenges.

 

Lee University, a Christian institution in Tennessee with 3,500 students, expects 50 to 60 international students this autumn, down from 82 last year.

 

The school has already raised tuition by 20 per cent over the past five years to cope with falling enrolment.

 

Trump’s push to reshape higher education

 

Since retaking office, Donald Trump’s administration has sought to reshape higher education, with measures that have directly affected international students. These include:

 

< Halting and delaying student visa processing

< Revoking and reinstating the legal status of hundreds of students

< Expanding social media screenings for visa applicants

< Imposing new travel bans

< Slashing university research funding

< Detaining international students involved in pro-Palestinian activism

< Proposing to revoke visas of Chinese students

 

The administration also attempted to prevent Harvard from enrolling international students, leading to a legal battle in which the university accused the White House of unconstitutional retaliation.

 

Broader impact on enrolment and the economy

 

More than 1.1 million international students were enrolled in US colleges and universities last year, making up roughly 6 per cent of the student population. But a May 2025 survey found interest in studying in the US had fallen to its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

A projection by Nafsa, an association of international educators, estimated that universities could see a 30 to 40 per cent fall in new international enrolment this year, resulting in a 15 per cent drop overall. The group attributed this to travel bans, delays in visa interviews, limited appointments and new vetting rules.

 

Nafsa calculated that international students contribute around $43 billion to the US economy each year.

 

Trump acknowledges risks

 

Despite his administration’s stance, Trump has conceded that US universities depend on foreign students. “It’s very insulting to say students can’t come here,” he said during a Cabinet meeting last week. “I like that their students come here. I like that other countries’ students come here.”

 

He added: “And you know what would happen if they didn’t? Our college system would go to hell very quickly. And it wouldn’t be the top colleges, so it’d be colleges that struggle on the bottom. And you take out 300,000 or 600,000 students out of the system.” Trump was speaking in the context of Chinese students.

 

With inputs from AP