Monsoon deficit likely to get wiped off soon, but El Nino a concern

The southwest monsoon has gathered momentum and the cumulative nationwide deficit might get wiped off in the coming days, but meteorologists warn that the El Niño is getting fiercer, which could be a cause for concern.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal rainfall in July at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), cumulatively across India.

The LPA for this month is 280.4 millimetres.

Meteorologists warned that the El Niño is peaking much faster than most models predicted, which could be cause of concern.

El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warning of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

On Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organization said temperatures were expected to soar across large parts of the world after the El Niño weather pattern emerged in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years.

A new update from the WMO forecasts that there is a 90 per cent probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of this year.

“The declaration of an El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies,” WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas said.

Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary of the ministry of earth sciences, said that there is no reason to panic, and we should keep a close watch on the monsoon patterns.

“Everyone should have a plan B in place and just not put eyes off just with the fact that the monsoon has recovered and the deficit has come down,” Rajeevan, told Business Standard.

He said that typically in an El Niño year, Indian monsoons go for longer than expected breaks over the crucial rainfed areas.

“In a normal monsoon year, the break in rains is for a period of say 5-6 days, but in case of El Niño years the breaks tend to get longer say of around 8-10 days. We need to watch out for them. In such times monsoons will be confined to the foothills of Himalayas and Southern Peninsular India,” Rajeevan explained.

On El Niño’s impact on winter or post-monsoon rains, Rajeevan said it was too early to make any predictions at the moment.

Mahesh Palawat, vice president meteorology and climate change at private weather forecasting agency Skymet, said India is expected to get good rains in the first 15 days of July, and then it would slow down.