Why Jaishankar and not PM Modi may attend Maldives president's swearing-in

Archipelagic state's new leader is changing his predecessor's 'India First' policy

In all likelihood, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, not Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi, will represent India at the November 17 swearing-in of Mohamed Muizzu, the new President of Maldives, according to informed sources.

This decision is attributed to the PM’s domestic preoccupations, including Assembly elections. However, in 2019, during a similar round of state elections, Modi attended the swearing-in ceremony of then-President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.

What has changed? How did Maldives transition from ‘India First’ to ‘India Out’? Worse, is geopolitics propelling India into becoming a factor in the domestic politics of Maldives?

The ‘India First’ policy was articulated by Solih, following his predecessor President Abdulla Yameen’s perceived pro-China tilt. However, a backlash ensued.

Gulbin Sultana, associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses and a leading expert on Maldivian politics, explains, “Like any other small country, Maldives is sensitive about its sovereignty and strategic autonomy. There has been a concerted effort by the Opposition to iterate the point that Maldives’ sovereignty was undermined by the Solih administration: i) by strengthening defence and security relations with India and by allowing Indian military personnel to be present in the Maldives; and ii) by accepting Mauritius’ sovereign rights on Chagos Island and accepting the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea decision on maritime boundary delimitation between Maldives and Mauritius.”

Defence experts attribute the proximate reason for the change to around 76 defence and quasi-defence personnel, mainly in maintenance roles, posted in the Maldives.

Admiral Shekhar Sinha, former Commander-in-Chief of Western Naval Command, emphasises that these personnel are in maintenance roles and do not engage in military activities.

“The Indian Navy has a Dhruv helicopter stationed in the Maldives, and the Coast Guard has a Dornier. As Hindustan Aeronautics has built the aircraft, they have personnel located there. It is a contractual obligation. However, they are all maintenance personnel: no one bears arms or has a military posture,” he says.

Admiral Sinha is worried about the collateral damage of the ‘India Out’ call. An Indian company has secured a tender to build a deep-draft port for containers in the Maldives. It is the only such facility as it is surrounded by coral reefs which need to be protected. After some difficulty, a site has been located on Uthuru Atoll.

If India is asked to leave, Pakistan could step in, potentially impacting strategic projects and alliances. A recent proposal for joint Maldives-Pakistan patrolling of the exclusive economic zone has already been mooted.

India’s High Commissioner to Malé, Munu Mahawar, has met Muizzu to discuss various issues. The US notes that troop withdrawal is a matter between India and the Maldives. The US, India, and China are among a few countries with embassies in Male.

Concerns arise due to past events, such as a decade-old bribery allegation involving an Indian construction company, leading to a cancelled contract. A decade ago, an Indian construction company was alleged to have bribed a former President to win a $511 million contract to run the country’s main airport. The contract was cancelled, and although the company won the arbitration, the incident left many Indian corporate houses and the Indian government wary about business dealings with the Maldivian governments without watertight guarantees.

However, while being quick to strike, Muizzu appears reluctant to wound. In a recent interview with Al Jazeera, he was asked exactly how many Indian troops there were on Maldivian soil. He was unable to recall the exact number.

Both Admiral Sinha and Sultana agree that other compelling issues in Maldivian politics demand attention. Voters are concerned about employment, social security, and infrastructure development. Besides, as Admiral Sinha says, the tyranny of geography is inescapable. India, especially Kerala, is the principal supplier of food and essentials to Maldives.

Sultana says Muizzu has presented an ambitious economic plan. Given the ongoing economic situation of the Maldives, it will be practically impossible for the new administration to achieve those economic goals relying only on one or two countries.

While China and Saudi Arabia have deep pockets and can emerge as significant economic partners, their partnership alone cannot resolve all the economic issues of the Maldives.

Debt servicing is a huge burden for the country.

According to World Bank, Maldives’ external debt servicing will reach around $1 billion by 2026. Muizzu has already asked India to restructure Maldives’ debt.

Maldives has a Presidential form of government. A President is elected directly, but parliamentary elections are held separately. These are due in the first quarter of 2024. Admiral Sinha says the real pressure on Muizzu will manifest itself if the Opposition wins the parliamentary elections.

Faced with political volatility, Muizzu could become vulnerable, and a realignment of political forces cannot be ruled out, says Admiral Sinha.

Either way, India may have to pay more attention to its tiniest neighbour in its interest.