Active monsoon phase may narrow kharif sowing gap after weak June

An active southwest monsoon is expected to accelerate kharif sowing after a weak June, helping narrow the rainfall deficit and support crop prospects

Following a prolonged lull, the southwest monsoon has entered a much-needed active phase. This has reduced the all-India cumulative rainfall deficit to about 24 per cent as on July 5 (from June 1 ), from nearly 40 per cent less than a week ago, and could inject a fresh lease of life into kharif sowing.

 

The area under kharif crops had lagged sharply behind last year’s level until the end of June, down nearly 22 per cent, as the monsoon remained largely absent across large parts of West and Central India.

 

A healthy kharif harvest, particularly of oilseeds and pulses, is crucial to keeping food inflation in check. Good rainfall would also help revive the falling sentiment in rural India. 

Adding to the optimism, most weathermen believe the current active phase of the southwest monsoon, driven by favourable weather conditions over the Bay of Bengal, is likely to continue until mid-July. 

“This should help wipe out much of the seasonal deficiency, though whether it disappears entirely remains to be seen because July itself is expected to receive below-normal rainfall,” Mahesh Palawat, vice president, Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather Services, told Business Standard. He said the first fortnight of July looks significantly better than June in terms of monsoon performance. “The current active phase will continue until July 7-8, followed by a brief lull and then another active spell around July 15-16,” Palawat said, adding that the monsoon trough, currently stretching across Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, is expected to shift towards North India over the next few days, bringing widespread rainfall to the region.  

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest update, said a fresh depression has formed over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Odisha-West Bengal coasts. It is expected to bring heavy to very heavy rainfall over parts of Chhattisgarh, central Maharashtra, Odisha, Konkan and Goa, the Gujarat region, and Saurashtra over the next two days.

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