Why are paddy and maize acreages seeing a big jump this kharif?

Better prices above MSP, coupled with demand from ethanol producers for their fuel-blending programme, are pushing the popularity of maize

Paddy and maize are among the two major crops that have seen the highest increase in area under cultivation so far this kharif season, compared to the last season, as per the latest data from the department of agriculture.

 

The increase in paddy acreage is understandable, given that the crop has been giving good returns over the past few years and export restrictions have also been eased, further lifting sentiment.

 

As per a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, India is poised to export a record over 24 million tonnes (MT) rice in the 2025-26 season. The fact that southwest monsoon has been more than generous this year in the main growing regions has also contributed in a big way to increasing the area under paddy this year. With around 3,000-3,500 litres required for producing one kilogramme of rice, paddy is among the highest water guzzling crops in India along with sugarcane.

 

Till last week, paddy was sown in around 24.51 million hectares (mn/ha) across India, about 13.4 per cent more than the area covered during the same period last year.

 

Normally, paddy covers around 40.3 mn/ha during kharif, and if the current trend continues, it likely that normal acreage might get breached this season.

 

Meanwhile, consumer price inflation in rice (from sources other than public distribution system) has consistently declined over the past year, going from a high of 10.89 per cent in July 2024 to 2.54 per cent in June 2025.

 

Nonetheless, farmers’ income from paddy has remained healthy as average market prices have remained more than the Minimum Support Price (MSP) in the last five kharif marketing seasons ending 2024-25.

 

As per the latest report from Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP), the market price of paddy in kharif marketing season 2024-25 has remained above MSP and rose during October-November 2024 but declined in December 2024 and January 2025.

 

“These trends clearly show that average market prices of paddy have generally remained above the MSP during the last five marketing seasons. Also, it is interesting to note that during the last five marketing seasons, market prices generally witnessed a rising trend in the months of October-December due to major procurement operations but declined in January,” the CACP report said.

 

Clearly, price is a factor which might be also playing into the minds of farmers as a part of a good monsoon while going for heightened paddy planting this kharif.

Maize gives paddy a close run for its money

When it comes to prices, seldom has any crop come close to maize in the last five years when it comes to giving returns higher than MSP.

 

The CACP report said that in kharif 2024-25, market prices of maize were below MSP in October-November 2024, but surpassed MSP in December 2024 and January 2025.

 

“There has been a significant improvement in maize prices during the last five seasons due to growing demand for maize from the ethanol production sector,” the report said.

 

In fact, in some states like Bihar, which is major maize growing state but only during summer, reports said maize prices have moved from around Rs 16000-17000 a quintal to nearly Rs 26,000 a quintal in three years before dropping slightly to around Rs 22,000-26,000 a quintal from April 2025 onwards.

 

The price trend is reflective of the surge in maize demand across India.

 

In fact, India imported the highest ever - almost 900,000 tonnes - non-GMO maize in 2024-25 purely to meet the demand from animal feed and chemical industries.

 

A year before that in 2023-24, maize imports were less than 150,000 tonnes.

 

Retail inflation in maize and maize-based products, too, has risen from 5.29 per cent in July 2024 to 7.21 per cent in June 2025. It had risen to over 8 per cent in April 2025.

 

MSP for maize has also risen sharply in the last five years to match the surge in market prices. Between 2020-21 and 2025-26, it has risen by almost 30 per cent, the highest in recent years.

 

Maize production has jumped from around 28 MT in 2018-19 to over 42 MT in 2024-25, a growth rate of 53 per cent in seven years. Per-hectare national average maize yields in the same period has risen from 3,070 kg to over 3,400 kg, an increase of over 13 per cent.

 

CACP data also shows that maize, along with sunflower, is among the few crops whose per-hectare yields and the gross return over A2+FL production costs have increased from 2013-14 to 2024-25.

An ethanol rush

A big driver of the boom in maize cultivation is the rising diversion of the crop towards making ethanol.

 

In fact, from a low of just around 0.31 bn litres in 2022-23 ethanol supply year (ESY, which runs November to October) to 2.86 bn litres in 2023-24 - a jump of more than 800 per cent - ethanol derived from maize has seen a stupendous rise.

 

According to a Parliament Standing Committee report, among the major feedstocks that are permitted for ethanol blending in India, maize comes second only to rice when it comes to average ethanol yield at 380 litres per tonne. 

As availability of subsidised rice from the Food Corporation of India (FCI) reduced due to a jump in retail prices and government’s liability to maintain a healthy buffer, maize has become the primary choice of both the government and ethanol producers in order to keep the fuel-blending programme running.

 

In the 2023-24 ESY, of the 6.72 bn litres of ethanol supplied to oil marketing companies, around 2.86 bn litres, or about 43 per cent, came purely from maize while the rest came from sugarcane and damaged food grains (primarily rice).

 

In ESY 2024-25, till June 30, 2025, maize has contributed around 2.66 bn litres of ethanol of the total supply of around 6.37 bn litres.

 

With resumption of subsidised rice sales from FCI, the pressure on maize has comed down a bit but it still remains an important source of ethanol.

 

If ethanol has been the main driver behind this maize boom, the availability of high yielding varieties of hybrids and good quality seeds have also been a major contributing factor.

 

In fact, industry sources say that maize is perhaps among the few cereal crops that have large numbers of high-yielding hybrids.

 

Recently, union agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said that the country has the potential to produce 65-70 MT of maize annually on the basis of the latest non-GMO hybrids. The ICAR’s Indian Institute of Maize Research has developed varieties that can give higher per-tonne ethanol than existing ones.

A maize of challenges

One big drawback of most maize grown in India is that its yields are still much lower than global averages.

 

India’s average maize yield is around 3000-5000 kg per hectare while the world average is somewhere around 6000-8000 kg. The US has an average corn (as maize is known there) yield of over 11,000 kgs per hectare.

 

Clearly, India needs a big technological push to improve yields. Recently, Panjab University landed itself in a controversy when it permitted trials of genetically-modified (GM) maize.

 

Additionally, the gold rush, if one may call it that, to cash in on the maize boom is prompting farmers in several parts of India to grow maize even in seasons that are not suitable for cultivation.

 

For example, growing maize in the summer months of March-April in Punjab is done by using irrigation water. Given normal maize cultivation requires less water than paddy, this practice goes against the very purpose for which experts and agriculturists have been promoting maize as an alternative to paddy in northern parts of India in the kharif season.

 

Summer maize requires 15-20 irrigation cycles as per some reports, making it unsuitable for growing during summers in states such as Punjab. As India moves towards 30 per cent ethanol blending from the existing 20 per cent, maize will continue to remain a critical crop for years to come, but care should be taken to ensure that it does not become another ecological disaster.