Business Standard CEO Poll: Wars, trade frictions test biz confidence

75% of CEOs are "cautiously optimistic" about the future

Nearly 75 per cent of Indian CEOs say that the global uncertainty — driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and the uncertain trade tariff environment — is “somewhat impacting” their businesses. However, the remaining respondents do not foresee any significant disruptions, according to a nationwide dipstick survey of the CEOs conducted last week.

 

Despite the geopolitical tensions, 83.33 per cent of the 12 CEOs surveyed by Business Standard affirmed that they are not altering their greenfield investment plans, even after US strikes on  Iranian nuclear sites early Sunday raised the stakes in the region.  

 

The overall sentiment within leadership teams remains steady, with three-fourths of respondents describing the mood as “cautiously optimistic”. 

 

Following the Reserve Bank of India’s recent liquidity easing, 58.33 per cent of CEOs indicated that they have no intention of revising their business strategies or supply chains, signalling confidence in domestic macroeconomic conditions.

 

“Everyone is in wait-and-watch mode to assess the fallout of the US strikes on Iran. A shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would severely impact crude oil flows,” said one CEO. 

 

This potential disruption comes as Indian corporations are embarking on an ambitious $850 billion capital expenditure plan over the next five years, led by sectors such as power, transmission, aviation, and green hydrogen, according to S&P Global Ratings.  

Regarding consumer demand in the current June quarter, CEOs are evenly split: half expect an improvement year-on-year, while the other half foresee no major change. However, 50 per cent acknowledged delays in discretionary or capital spending by customers, pointing to caution in end markets. 

 

On the hiring front, 58.33 per cent of CEOs said there would be no change in recruitment for 2025–26 compared to 2024–25, while the remaining respondents plan to increase hiring. 

 

Importantly, the resilience of India’s domestic economy is acting as a buffer against global headwinds — 91.67 per cent of CEOs believe that India’s macroeconomic stability is helping their businesses navigate global volatility.

 

(Dev Chatterjee, with inputs from Sohini Das, Shine Jacob, Gulveen Aulakh, Ishita Ayan Dutt, Udisha Srivastav, and Peerzada Abrar)