E-tailing in India is expected to grow 5x to $300 bn by 2030: Redseer

There is expected to be 6 to 8-fold growth in 3PL (third-party logistics) shipments between 2022 and 2030 - from 2 billion in 2022 to an estimated 13-17 billion in 2030, according to Redseer report

India's e-tailing sector is poised to experience a fivefold growth, surging from $59 billion in 2022 to an estimated $300 billion by 2030, fuelled by value-seeking 'mass' consumers, states a report by Redseer Strategy Consultants.

The report emphasises the burgeoning adoption of e-commerce in Tier-2 and beyond cities. This, combined with a growing base of 'mass' consumers and the expansion of 3PL (third-party logistics) serviceability, is catalysing shipment volumes. Consequently, these volumes are projected to rise more sharply than GMV growth.

With the upcoming festive season, a spike in eTailing activities is anticipated, bringing 3PL into sharper focus. The Redseer study forecasts a 6 to 8-fold growth in 3PL shipments from 2022 to 2030, rising from 2 billion in 2022 to a projected 13-17 billion in 2030.

From January to August 2023, Meesho took the lead as the principal contributor to e-commerce 3PL shipments in India. Other major players included Flipkart, Ajio, and Amazon, while vertical e-commerce platforms, D2C (direct-to-consumer) brands, and smaller e-tailers accounted for the remaining shipments.

"3PL has become essential for mass-focused horizontals, significant verticals, and D2C brands. Partnering with 3PL for logistics needs not only accelerates market entry but also drives growth, addressing the challenges of erratic demand and optimising logistics investments per shipment," commented Mohit Rana, partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants.

As 3PL scales up, shipment costs are forecasted to decline by 23 per cent, moving from Rs 60 in 2023 to Rs 47 by 2030. The study cites demand consolidation in smaller cities and policy adjustments as key drivers for this cost reduction, promoting efficient resource use.

However, the report also underscores challenges currently faced by the 3PL sector, including shipment protection, weight-related disputes, return-to-origin processes, and responsiveness.