Elderly may account for 25% of India's pharma market in 2-3 decades

Seniors are 10% of India, but already 17% of its pharma market

The ‘silver generation’ will account for at least one-fourth of the pharma and healthcare market in the next two-three decades, according to market research firm Pharmarack.

 

India is entering a decisive demographic transition that will redefine demand across healthcare, finance, insurance, housing, and consumer services over the next several decades. Though the 60-plus group makes up only about 10 per cent of India’s population, it already contributes close to 17 per cent of the pharma market because almost every senior citizen is on long-term therapies like antihypertensives.

 

“As the proportion of the 60-plus population increases, their contribution to the Indian pharma market will rise sharply. I estimate the silver generation will account for at least one-fourth, and possibly one-third, of the market in the next two to three decades,” says Sheetal Sapale, vice-president, commercial, Pharmarack. 

Pharmarack maps India’s demographic arc over a 200-year period—from 1900 to projections for 2100—and shows how the country is steadily moving toward an elderly-heavy profile similar to that of Japan and Western Europe.

 

“I think India is headed toward a demographic structure that looks far more like Japan than like the India we know today, and that fundamentally changes how we must think about healthcare, pensions, and labour,” says Sapale.

 

The study highlights a sharp rise in the 60-plus population, which will jump from about 11 per cent today to 20–21 per cent by 2050 and 31 per cent by 2100.

 

“When you look at India over a 200-year period, you see a very predictable but dramatic shift—from a young-dependent population to an elderly-dependent one, and by 2100, almost a third of our population will be over 60,” she says.

 

The shift, driven by longevity gains and falling fertility, marks a fundamental turning point. Between 1900 and 1950, the elderly share held steady at 5–6 per cent, with the 1918 flu pandemic depressing population growth for a decade. Post-independence improvements in public health pushed population growth sharply higher, but ageing remained modest. The acceleration begins after 2000, as better disease management and urban lifestyles reshape mortality and fertility patterns.

 

“Once the 60-plus population hits 20 to 30 per cent of the country, the demand for elderly-care treatments will surge—cardiac, metabolic, neurological, and musculoskeletal medicines are going to dominate the market for the next several decades,” Sapale feels.

 

Dependency ratios—those under 18 and over 60—underline the pressure points ahead. While India’s total dependency ratio of around 40 per cent remains stable, its composition is changing rapidly.

 

“What worries me is that the dependency ratio will stay at around 40 per cent, but the composition flips; instead of young dependents, it will be elderly dependents, and that places a very different type of economic pressure on households and the state,” says Sapale.

 

Young dependents dominated for most of the past century, by 2050, young and old will contribute roughly equally. By 2100, elderly dependency will become the dominant driver.

 

But the demographic shift also opens new opportunities. The “silver economy” is expected to expand across healthcare, technology, housing, and financial services. Demand is set to rise for chronic-care medicines, medical devices, diagnostics, assisted living, and geriatric-care facilities. Technology-enabled solutions—AI-based monitoring, fall-detection systems, telemedicine, and remote disease management—will form the backbone of elderly support systems. Age-friendly urban design, flexible work formats, phased retirement, and senior-focused financial products will also gain traction.