Indian CEOs cautious about private investment revival, says BS poll

When asked about the sectors that will drive performance in the coming quarters, the consensus leaned heavily toward domestic industries

Indian chief executives remain cautious about the prospects of a strong revival in private investment, even as the economy posts robust growth, according to a dipstick survey of 14 business leaders.

 

The poll, conducted over the past weekend, found that only 28.6 per cent of chief executive officers (CEOs) expect a strong revival in private capital expenditure — a crucial driver of long-term growth. However, a majority — 50 per cent —  see only a modest improvement in the cycle, while 21.4 per cent do not believe investment activity will meaningfully pick up. This reflects continued caution among corporate leaders despite India’s 7.8 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth expansion in the first quarter of FY26.

 

On the broader economy, CEOs expressed mixed confidence. About 35.7 per cent believe growth will remain strong, while a similar percentage of respondents expect it to moderate. The rest said it was too early to call, highlighting the uncertain outlook.   

 

When asked which sectors would drive performance in the coming quarters, the consensus leaned heavily towards domestic industries. 

 

Manufacturing was highlighted by 21.1 per cent of respondents, services by 36.8 per cent, and infrastructure/capex by 42.1 per cent.

 

Risks to the outlook were perceived largely as external. Almost 64.3 per cent of respondents flagged a global slowdown as the biggest threat to India’s growth trajectory, while the remainder pointed to domestic policy execution challenges. Notably, none of the CEOs identified weak exports as their primary concern, suggesting confidence in domestic demand.

 

On monetary policy, most CEOs anticipate a quicker easing cycle. About 64.3 per cent expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut rates before the year-end, while 14.3 per cent see cuts only in 2026. The remaining 21.4 per cent believe the central bank may stay cautious for longer.

 

Consumer spending is expected to benefit the most from lower borrowing costs. Almost 76.9 per cent of respondents said household demand -- particularly for housing, autos, and durables -- would gain the most from RBI’s rate cuts. Only 23.1 per cent identified corporate investment as the likely winner, underscoring scepticism about a capex revival. 

 

On policy priorities, respondents were evenly split. Half of them said the RBI should prioritise growth momentum, while the other half emphasised balancing growth and inflation. None felt inflation control alone should be the top priority.

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pledge to reduce the goods and services tax (GST) before Diwali received broad endorsement. About 43 per cent of CEOs said the move would significantly benefit their sectors, 36 per cent expected only marginal gains, and 21.4 per cent saw little or no impact.

 

Sanjiv Puri, chairman & managing director of ITC, said that despite global challenges, India’s 7.8 per cent GDP growth in the first quarter -- one of the highest in the past five quarters -- was highly commendable.

 

“The PM’s vision, expressed on Independence Day, to unleash next-generation reforms, particularly in GST, will spur a virtuous cycle of consumption, investment, and employment, and augurs well for the economy. India is a consumption-led economy, and its robust trajectory of GDP growth will fuel opportunities across all sectors,” Puri said in a social media post.

 

Concerns over US tariffs were limited. More than 86 per cent of respondents said the trade measures would not affect their businesses, while the rest acknowledged possible risks.

 

“As reflected in the recent GDP estimates, the Indian economy is poised for strong growth. As India’s leading engineering and infrastructure company, we are entering an exciting phase,” said R Shankar Raman, president, whole-time director and CFO of L&T.

 

(Dev Chatterjee with inputs from Aneeka Chatterjee, Ishita Ayan Dutt, Sohini Das, Sundar Sethuraman, and Prachi Pisal)