Silver price outlook: On Thursday, spot silver, trading in line with gold, and inversely to oil prices, found a support around yesterday's low of $57.22. At the time of writing this article on Thursday night, the white metal was trading on $60.23, up 3% for the day. In the week ending July 3, silver surged 5.51% to close at $62.41.
Geopolitics and oil:
US and Iran traded airstrikes overnight stoking fears of a full-blown war. Iran reported strikes on its Bushehr nuclear plant. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz almost came to a halt on Thursday. IRGC warned that any US interference in determining ship routes in the Strait would jeopardize the process of gradual reopening of the waterway.
While Iran wants to impose a transit fee, Oman said that it doesn't support charging transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz as the right of transit passage through straits used for international navigation is guaranteed under international law.
Iran foreign ministry and Pakistani Army chief held a phone call on Thursday. Meanwhile Israel's Defence minister Katz said that Israel can renew its strikes on Iran if threats remerge.
Saudi Arab and UAE have condemned Iran for its attacks on neighbouring countries.
Oil prices retreated on July 9 on expectations that the conflict will remain contained as both the countries stand to lose significantly in case of a material escalation. At the time of writing, Brent Oil Futures were down 1.5% to $77.
Data roundup:
US data released on July 9 showed that weekly job data were mixed: initial jobless claims (week ending July 4) came in at 215K Vs the forecast of 217K (prior 217K), whereas continuing claims rose from 1806K to 1814K (forecast 1814K). Existing home sales (June) fell from upwardly revised 4.19m to 4.06m (forecast 4.20m) -- two-month low.
China's June inflation data released on July 9 showed that oil shock-led reflation may be losing its momentum as
CPI inflation trailed estimates on both M-o-M and Y-o-Y basis. June headline CPI, decelerating for the first time since March, came in at 1 per cent Y-o-Y (forecast 1.1 per cent, prior 1.2 per cent), while core CPI at 1 per cent lagged the estimate of 1.1 per cent (prior 1.1 per cent), too. June PPI, matching the estimate, rose 4.1 per cent Y-o-Y from 3.9 per cent in May, while it fell 0.3 per cent M-o-M.
US Dollar Index and yields:
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index was trading a tad lower at 100.92. The Index was softer on the ECB's rate hike possibility and lower oil prices.
Two-year US yields fell nearly 1 per cent to 4.17 per cent, while ten-year yields edged 0.7 per cent lower to 4.55 per cent.
ETFs and Inventory:
Total known global silver ETF holdings stand at 782.97 MOz, around cycle lows. Holdings have declined 2458 tons (9.16 per cent) YTD and are down 1525 tons (5.89 per cent) since the beginning of the Iran war on February 28.
Registered COMEX inventory at 93.50 MOz has recovered to the highest since October 2025 but remains 53.4 per cent down from the record September 2025 peak of 201 MOz.
Shanghai on Warrant daily stocks at 830 tons continues to remain at a decade's low level, though inventory has recovered quite sharply from 252 tons seen in November 2025.
LBMA Lease rate:
One-month LBMA lease rate at 0 per cent does not betray any immediate supply tightness.
Fed rate hike probability:
Overnight rates suggest markets look for 0.96 rate hikes in October as compared with 1.10 rate hikes as seen on Wednesday.
Traders expect another 0.70 rate hike in April next year. Europe's rate hike probability has increased slightly.
The ECB is expected to hike in October, while the Bank of England is likely to hike in December.
Central bank watch:
Fed Chair Warsh will testify at House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report on July 14 and July 15, respectively.
FOMC minutes of June 16-17 FOMC meeting showed that the Fed officials remain divided over the rate path, whereas some of them see the case for a rate hike to tackle inflation. Many members see AI-led growth leading to a rate hike. A few Federal Reserve officials said there was a case for raising interest rates in June. Next FOMC meeting is on July 28-29.
The minutes of the ECB’s June 10-11 meeting show that the ECB Governing Council unanimously agreed to raise interest rates by 25 bps based on incoming economic and financial data. The Council is likely to refrain from giving any guidance regarding the future interest rate path due to uncertainty, though further rate hikes are embedded in the baseline projections.
China’s central bank bought more gold in June, extending the buying streak to the 20th month--longest since at least 2015 as it remains committed to diversifying its reserves. The Central Bank bought 480,000 troy ounces (15 tons) in June-- the biggest since October 2023.
Upcoming data:
Major US data on deck in next one week include June 27 ADP weekly employment change (July 14), June CPI (July 14), June PPI (July 15) and June retail sales control group (July 16).
China's June trade balance (July 14), 2Q GDP (July 15), June retail sales, industrial production and property data (July 15) will also be in focus.
Traders will also parse speeches by a battery of Fed speakers for clues to the Fed's monetary policy path.
Outlook:
Silver is expected to be highly volatile and choppy in the short run due to the evolving situation in the Middle East; however, as the US-Iran conflict is likely to remain contained, traders may buy the dips with an appropriate stop-loss, though upside is likely to be capped due to possible rate hikes.
A move above $61.20 will open the way to $64. Support is at $59/$57.
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Disclaimer: This article is written by Praveen Singh, head of commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan. Views expressed are his own. Readers' discretion is advised.
 "Silver price outlook: Rate hike risks could limit upside, says Mirae Asset")
