Pre-listing hype or real gains? What 2025's IPO numbers say about GMPs

India’s primary market witnessed one of its busiest years in recent times in 2025, with a packed IPO calendar and several marquee issuers tapping the capital markets amid strong investor participation. Companies raised a total of ₹1.74 trillion (₹1,74,379 crore) through 101 mainboard initial public offerings, making the year a landmark for equity fundraising.

 

High-profile names such as Tata Capital, HDB Financial Services, LG Electronics India, ICICI Prudential AMC, Groww and Lenskart featured prominently in the IPO pipeline, reflecting issuer confidence supported by ample domestic liquidity. 

How did GMPs fare against IPO returns in 2025?

The surge in activity did not translate into listing gains for investors chasing pre-listing hype. According to data compiled by Business Standard, nearly 55 per cent or 56 out of 101 mainboard IPOs listed during the year debuted below their grey market price, highlighting the disconnect between pre-listing sentiment and post-listing performance.

 

The grey market premium (GMP) refers to the unofficial price at which IPO shares trade ahead of listing and is widely tracked by retail investors as an indicator of potential listing gains. However, GMP is unregulated and largely sentiment-driven, making it an unreliable gauge of post-listing performance.

 

Analysts attributed this trend largely to rich valuations and an oversupply of offerings, which gave investors multiple choices and reduced appetite for average-quality issues.

 

“This year has seen IPOs across all market-cap segments, creating a problem of plenty for investors,” said Sunny Agrawal, head of fundamental equity research at SBI Securities. 

 

“When investors have multiple options, they become far more selective. Businesses that are regular, run-of-the-mill and already have listed peers tend to struggle to sustain excitement, while companies from newer segments or those offering something unique are able to command a scarcity premium," Agrawal said.

 

Among recent examples, National Securities Depositories Limited (NSDL) was trading at a price of ₹925 in the unofficial markets ahead of its listing, commanding a premium of ₹125 or 15.5 per cent. However, the stock debuted at ₹880 on the exchanges. Similarly, Orkla India, Aegis Vopak Terminals, Schloss Bangalore, Vikram Solar, Belrise Industries, and Canara HSBC Life Insurance, among others, debuted below their grey market price.

 

Agrawal added that IPO investing should be driven by long-term fundamentals rather than short-term listing expectations. “Ultimately, what matters is whether a company can deliver sustainable and profitable growth over the next few years. Price discipline becomes critical, especially in a market where valuations have been pushed up by strong liquidity,” he said.

 

“Even fundamentally strong businesses can struggle after listing if they are priced too aggressively,” said Kranthi Bathini, director of equity strategy at WealthMills Securities.

 

Sustaining valuations post listing becomes challenging, and many companies need time to improve profitability and cash flows. Investors should be very stock-specific and avoid subscribing to IPOs purely based on pre-listing euphoria, he added.

 

Analysts expect IPO outcomes to remain stock-specific going forward, with investors increasingly focusing on valuation comfort, earnings visibility and business fundamentals rather than chasing grey market cues.