Analysts predict upto 17% upside in ICICI Bank stock after Q4; check target

ICICI Bank share price: ICICI Bank shares rose 2.1 per cent, or ₹30.4 per share, on the stock exchange in the intraday trade

ICICI Bank shares scaled lifetime highs on Monday, April 21, 2025, as they hit a record high of ₹1,437 per share on the BSE in the intraday trade. ICICI Bank shares rose 2.1 per cent, or ₹30.4 per share, on the stock exchange in the intraday trade. By comparison, the BSE Sensex index was up 1 per cent (822 points) at 11:15 AM.

 

Buying interest was seen in ICICI Bank shares after the private bank posted a “superlative” performance in the March 2025 quarter (Q4FY25), boosting investor confidence in the stock.  Read Stock Market Live Updates Today Here

 

ICICI Bank Q4 results review:

On Saturday, April 19, ICICI Bank reported Q4FY25 net profit of ₹12,630 crore, up 18 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), driven by a significant net interest margin (NIM) expansion, healthy other income, and contained provisions.

 

The bank's net interest income (NII) grew 11 per cent Y-o-Y and 4 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹21,190 crore, while NIM expanded 16 basis points Q-o-Q to 4.41 per cent. ICICI Bank’s loan book grew 13.3 per cent Y-o-Y (2.1 per cent Q-o-Q) in Q4FY25, with domestic net advances increasing 13.9 per cent Y-o-Y/2.2 per cent Q-o-Q.

 

Deposit surged 14 per cent Y-o-Y/5.9 per cent Q-o-Q, while average CASA fairly stable at 38.4 per cent. Fresh slippages, too, declined by 15.5 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹5,140 crore (from ₹6,085 crore in Q3FY25).

  Gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio declined 29bps Q-o-Q to 1.67 per cent, while the NNPA ratio improved by 3bps Q-o-Q to 0.39 per cent.

 

Brokerages on ICICI Bank: Share price target, stock upside

Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Buy | Share price target: ₹1,650

The brokerage said its estimate of a modest NIM expansion in Q4FY25 was a tall ask, given the ongoing rate-cut cycle, but delivering a 16-bps NIM expansion, which has covered the margin fall over the entire year and taken NIMs back to the level seen in Q4FY24, is indeed very commendable.

 

This underscores the management’s intent and capability to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns (credit cost stood at 27bp/37p during Q4/FY25). We upgrade our earnings estimates by 2.5 per cent/4.2 per cent for FY26/FY27 on the back of positive NIM surprise and controlled credit costs. We estimate return on asset (RoA)/return on equity (RoE) of 2.3 per cent/17.5 per cent in FY27.  READ | HDFC Bank shares hit record high post Q4; time to add to your portfolio?

 

Nuvama Institutional Equities | Buy | Share price target: ₹1,630

Analysts at the brokerages said ICICI Bank delivered a strong and above-expected earnings growth even in a volatile macro environment, highlighting its superior fundamentals. The stock’s premium to peers shall expand, based on its strong delivery. The brokerage reiterated ICICI Bank stock as its top pick.

 

JM Financial Services | Buy | Share price target: ₹1,650

The management said that while the stress from unsecured segments is likely to go down from here, it would take a couple of quarters before normalisation. It, however, assured that these segments are being closely monitored and credit costs are being consistently accounted for in the P&L.

 

Further, the management highlighted that the lag in transmission of repo rates is expected to drive margins down going forward, which will be a system-wide phenomena.

 

Given this, JM Financial analysts have built-in margins compression over the near term and expect average NIMs of 4.14 per cent over FY26-27 to result in NII/PPoP/PAT CAGR of 13 per cent/13 per cent/11 per cent over FY25-27E.  READ | Tata Elxsi surges 5% after Q4 results; Check earnings, stock details here

 

About ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank was incorporated in 1994, and is one of India’s largest banks with a loan book size of over ₹12.2 trillion. Retail financing accounts for more than half of the total loans and advances of ICICI Bank. The bank holds near market leadership in almost all its businesses including mortgages, auto loans, commercial vehicle loans, life insurance, general insurance, and asset management. Its subsidiaries include ICICI Venture Funds, Pru ICICI AMC, ICICI Securities, ICICI Prudential, and ICICI Lombard.