HPCL, BPCL, IOC: Time to buy or sell OMCs as govt hikes excise duty?

Technically, HPCL, BPCL stock seem to be favourably placed on the charts with key support at ₹ 324 and ₹ 255, respectively. IOC stock chart however flags a caution sign.

Shares of oil marketing companies - HPCL, BPCL and Indian Oil (IOC) jumped up to 3 per cent in intra-day trades on Tuesday, a day after the government raised excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹ 2 per litre. The buying at these counters can be attributed to a sharp decline in crude oil prices in recent days.  In the last four trading sessions, the US crude oil futures have tumbled over 15 per cent, and now quote around $ 61.50 per barrel levels. When compared to the calendar year 2025 high of $ 80.40 per barrel, crude oil prices have declined as much as 24 per cent.  In general, a sharp fall in crude oil prices tends to benefit oil marketing companies (OMCs) such as HPCL, BPCL and IOC. However, an excise duty hike which was not passed on to the retail sales burdens the OMCs.  Analysts, however, believe that the excise duty hike may not have any significant impact on the earnings estimates of these OMCs. READ MORE  Given this background, here's an outlook on HPCL, BPCL and IOC shares based on the technical charts.  Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL)  Current Price: ₹ 363  Upside Potential: 29.5%  Support: ₹ 346; ₹ 335; ₹ 324  Resistance: ₹ 373; ₹ 397  Amid the recent market fall, HPCL has broadly found support around its 20-Monthly Moving Average (20-MMA), which now stands at ₹ 324. That apart, the stock is attempting to make higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. Thus, the near-term bias is likely to remain cautiously optimistic as long as HPCL stock holds above ₹ 324. Interim support for the stock is seen at ₹ 346 and ₹ 335 levels.    On the upside, the stock has near resistance at ₹ 373 in the form of its 200-day Daily Moving Average (200-DMA), and a far-off hurdle exists at ₹ 397. Fresh upside momentum at the counter can be anticipated only on break and sustained trade above these two hurdles. Post, which a rally towards ₹ 470 levels seems possible. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)  Current Price: ₹ 280  Upside Potential: 30.4%  Support: ₹ 275; ₹ 255  Resistance: ₹ 295; ₹ 300  BPCL stock has near support at ₹ 275, and a far-off support at ₹ 255. As long as BPCL manages to sustain above these two support levels, the stock can try and attempt a breakout from the overhead resistance zone between ₹ 295 - ₹ 300. Sustained trade above this resistance zone can potentially trigger a rally towards ₹ 365 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)  Current Price: ₹ 130  Downside Risk: 23.1%  Support: ₹ 122.80; ₹ 114  Resistance: ₹ 134.50; ₹ 140  In contrast to HPCL and BPCL, IOC chart looks weak with presence of a strong hurdle around ₹ 140 levels. Interim resistance for the stock exists at ₹ 134.50. On the downside, the stock has near support at ₹ 122.80; below which the stock may re-test its recent lows around ₹ 114 or slide towards the ₹ 100-mark. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART