Lupin rises post-Q3 analysts call, but brokerages flag FY27 earnings risk

Lupin conducted its analyst meet post December quarter results on Friday (February 13, 2026) after market hours. The company had released its financial results on Thursday, February 12, 2026. 

In the December quarter, the company reported a 37 per cent growth in consolidated net profit at ₹1,175.5 crore, as compared to ₹855.16 crore a year ago.  

The company’s revenue from operations came in at ₹7,167.52 crore, compared to ₹5767.71 crore year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Check detailed result here 

  At 9:32 AM, Lupin’s shares were trading 1.11 per cent higher at ₹2,223.65 per share. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was up 0.02 per cent at 82,644.33.

Brokerages’ view on Lupin Stock

Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Neutral | Target: ₹2,360 from ₹2,125

Motilal Oswal said Lupin delivered a better-than-expected Q3FY26 performance, with revenue/Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda)/ profit after tax (PAT) beating estimates by 6 per cent/16 per cent/22 per cent, driven by strong traction in the US and other developed markets.  

It noted Lupin posted its highest quarterly Ebitda margin in the past 10 years and also recorded its highest-ever quarterly US sales of $350 million, led by scaling up recent launches. The brokerage valued Lupin at 22x 12-month forward earnings to arrive at a target price of ₹2,360, but maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating, flagging potential competition in certain products and a gestation period for commercialising complex assets in inhalation, injectables, and biosimilars that could cap earnings growth over FY26–28.

Emkay Global Financial Services | Buy | Target ₹2,500 

Emkay has retained its ‘Buy’ rating on Lupin, noting that the company delivered another quarter of earnings outperformance driven by record-high US sales and strong emerging market growth. Following the sharp Q3 beat, management raised its full-year Ebitda margin guidance to 27–28 per cent (from 25–26 per cent).  While the stock has been range-bound due to concerns over the sustainability of high-value product earnings, Emkay believes the US revenue base needs a reset and is likely to stay above $1 billion over FY27–28, supported by the Mirabegron settlement and the continued contribution of gJynarque.  In India, the brokerage expects growth to mirror the double-digit prescription business from FY27 onwards as the impact of a high tender base fades. With research and development (R&D) investments fueling a complex generic pipeline and international markets (ex-India/US) now contributing nearly 25 per cent of revenue, Emkay has marginally raised its FY27/28 earnings estimates, expressing increased confidence in the company's medium-term growth trajectory.

ICICI Securities | Hold | Target raised to ₹2,200 from ₹1,950

ICICI Securities said the beat in Lupin’s Q3FY26 performance was largely driven by a stellar showing in the US market, where revenue rose 46.8 per cent Y-o-Y to $350 million. Growth was led by key products such as Tolvaptan, Mirabegron and Spiriva, though it cautioned that competition in Tolvaptan could emerge anytime, while threats to Mirabegron and Spiriva are some time away. In India, the branded business continues to grow at 10–12 per cent, and the completion of the VISUfarma acquisition in Europe is expected to provide an additional growth trigger.  While management has raised FY26 Ebitda margin guidance to 27–28 per cent, it expects margins to moderate to 24–25 per cent in FY27. The brokerage has raised its FY27/28 earnings estimates by 5–16 per cent, factoring in the Mirabegron settlement with Astellas.

JM Financial Institutional Securities | Reduce | Target raised to ₹2,037 from ₹1,903

JM Financial said Lupin delivered a strong Q3FY26, with revenue/Ebitda/PAT, broadly in line with its estimates, while Ebitda beat Street expectations by 20 per cent. Ebitda margin expanded sharply to 30.8 per cent, up 715 basis points Y-o-Y, aided by a higher contribution from high-margin US products.  

Growth was led by the US, EMEA and RoW markets, which rose 47 per cent, 47 per cent, and 64 per cent Y-o-Y, respectively, while India and active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) segments remained subdued at 6 per cent and -24 per cent Y-o-Y. The brokerage highlighted strong traction in low-competition US products such as Spiriva, Albuterol and Mirabegron, with management guiding for sustained US launch momentum through FY27–28. However, JM Financial cautioned that potential revenue loss from 3–4 key products could be hard to offset, possibly leading to earnings degrowth over the next two years, with the impact visible from early FY27. 

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