RIL Q1 Preview: Profit to see strong YoY growth led by retail, Jio, and O2C

The Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results for the current financial year (Q1FY26) on July 18

India's top listed firm, Reliance Industries (RIL), is expected to post a strong first-quarter performance, driven by robust growth in its retail, telecom, and oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segments, according to analysts. 

 

The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results for the current financial year (Q1FY26) on July 18.

 

According to a Bloomberg poll, 18 analysts estimated consolidated revenues of ₹2.42 trillion (up 4.48 per cent year-on-year) and 7 forecast a net adjusted income of ₹20,059 crore (up 32 per cent Y-o-Y) for Q1FY26. 

 

ICICI Securities projects a 15 per cent Y-o-Y rise in the oil-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated Ebitda and a 25 per cent jump in net profit. Retail earnings are expected to grow 18 per cent, while Jio’s Ebitda may increase 17 per cent Y-o-Y and 2.7 per cent sequentially, the brokerage said. 

 

The O2C segment is seen rising 17.7 per cent, helped by a $0.4 per barrel sequential increase in gross refining margins (GRMs), although some gains may be offset by a refinery shutdown. The upstream business is likely to remain soft due to lower production and higher government profit-sharing, ICICI Securities said.  

 

In the previous quarter, RIL reported a consolidated net profit of ₹19,407 crore, up nearly 2.4 per cent Y-o-Y. The company’s revenue from operations rose to Rs 2.6 trillion from Rs 2.4 trillion recorded in January-March 2024.

 

Kotak Securities also expects a 15.4 per cent Y-o-Y rise in consolidated Ebitda, with 19-20 per cent growth in the O2C, digital, and retail segments. Jio’s Ebitda is seen rising 4.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), helped by benefits from the July 2024 tariff hike and a better margin profile, with average revenue per user (ARPU) estimated at ₹209.5, Kotak noted. Retail Ebitda is forecast to grow around 21 per cent year-on-year.

 

Meanwhile, JM Financial expects RIL to post a modest 2.4 per cent Q-o-Q rise in consolidated Ebitda for the first quarter of FY26. 

 

The growth is likely to be led by a 3.5 per cent sequential increase in digital Ebitda, supported by strong subscriber additions and higher ARPU, it said. While the O2C segment is expected to remain largely flat Q-o-Q, retail Ebitda could see a healthy 15 per cent rise Y-o-Y, JM Financial said. 

 

The brokerage has maintained a 'Buy' rating on RIL as it expects the company to deliver a robust 15-20 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings per share (EPS) over the next three to five years. Jio’s ARPU is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 13 per cent between FY25 and FY28.