Sensex poised for 3,000-pt rally; Nifty can zoom 2,000 pts; key levels here

The Nifty is quoting barely 150 pts shy from the 24,000-mark; but the key hurdles stand at 24,050 and 24,169 levels, shows the technical charts.

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) benchmark - the Nifty 50 index has rallied 9.8 per cent from a low of 21,744 to a high of 23,872 in the last two weeks. In the process, the Nifty has bounced back above its short- and medium-term moving averages on the daily scale, and is less than a per cent shy from its long-term - the 200-day Daily Moving Average (DMA).  The Nifty has been trading consistently below its 200-DMA, which now stands at 24,050, for the last 70 trading sessions, post the breakdown on January 6, 2025. This is now the longest time spent below the 200-DMA since the Covid-19 trigger fall, wherein the NSE benchmark languished below the long-term average for 95 straight days.  Technical chart, however, indicates that the bigger worry for the Nifty could be the weekly super trend line resistance. A key technical indicator that index has been struggling below for the last six months, since October 25, 2024. This key hurdle stands at 24,169, the Nifty needs to register a weekly (Friday) close above the same to trigger a breakout on the medium-term chart.  This is the second attempt by the Nifty to challenge this key resistance in the last six months. In the previous instance i.e. in the late March rally, the index hit a high of 23,870 and then dropped back to register a lower low.    Will the Nifty be able to conquer this medium-term hurdle this week or will the rally falter? Here's what the technical charts suggest.  NSE Nifty key levels  Last week close: 23,852  Support: 23,400; 23,200  Resistance: 24,050; 24,169  The Nifty daily chart indicates that the short-term bias for the market is likely to remain positive as long as the NSE index stays above the 20-DMA, which stands around 23,200 levels. Near support for the index exists at the 100-DMA at 23,400 levels.  On the upside, the 200-DMA at 24,050 levels, which also coincides with the higher-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily scale, is likely to act as an immediate resistance for the Nifty 50. Above which, the major resistance stands at 24,169.  Having said that, key momentum oscillators on the daily and weekly chart are favourably placed. Hence, an upside breakout cannot be ruled out. In case of a successful breakout (weekly close above 24,169), the market pullback could then potentially extend towards 26,300 levels, with interim resistance seen at 24,700 levels.    On the flip side, inability to sustain consistently above its 20-DMA, can weaken the chart set-up, and as such the Nifty may resume its downtrend.  BSE Sensex key levels  Last week close: 78,553  Support: 78,855; 79,750; 80,470; 81,190  Resistance: 78,040; 77,720; 77,400; 77,150  The near-term bias for the BSE Sensex is expected to remain favourable as long as the index holds above 77,400 levels. Further, the index is now quoting firmly above its key bullish pivot which stands at 76,200 levels.  On the upside, the BSE benchmark can potentially rally to 82,000-levels. Key hurdles for the Sensex this week are placed at 78,855, 79,750, 80,470 and 81,190 levels. On the other hand, support for the index exists at 78,040, 77,720, 77,400 and 77,150 levels.