How a no-limits Russia-China pact is reshaping the post-war world order

Chinese President Xi Jinping paid an important visit to Moscow from May 7 to 10, his 11th since taking office in 2012. He was the chief guest at the celebrations of the 80th anniversary of Victory Day, marking the defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan by the allied forces – including the then Soviet Union and Republic of China. Mr Xi had attended similar festivities in Moscow 10 years ago.  This year was special because not only was he the chief guest, but a unit of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) took part in the victory parade at the Red Square. The visit and the pomp and show surrounding it were a symbolic reaffirmation of the close ties between the two countries. There was an impressive substantive dimension to the visit, with over 20 bilateral cooperation agreements being signed in addition to an elaborate joint statement. The visit attracted less international attention because it was overshadowed by the news of the United States (US) and China reaching a deal on substantially reducing the tit-for-tat tariffs they had imposed on each other, triggering an unprecedented trade war. 

  The reduction in tariffs, which will apply for three months while negotiations take place on a more enduring bilateral agreement, has been widely seen as a climb down by US President Donald Trump and a victory for China. In addition, the visit took place when India and Pakistan were trading missiles and armed drone attacks. Some reported successes claimed for Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied aircraft and munitions against India’s fleet of Rafale fighter jets gave a boost to China’s reputation as a high-tech weapons manufacturer. Success was also claimed for India’s Russian-sourced S-400 anti-aircraft defence systems and the Brahmos missiles. There is still no reliable information available on these claims and counterclaims. However, China’s stock has gone up, with some in the Western media pointing to the country’s emergence as a high-tech power, matching Western systems. Mr Xi’s Moscow visit must be seen in this geopolitical context. 

The views expressed by Mr Xi in an article published in a Russian newspaper before the visit, and the remarks made by him and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a press conference held at the end of the visit, bear closer analysis. They reflect the self-assurance and confidence of the two leaders who see Mr Trump’s unpredictable domestic and external policies as creating a historic opportunity to shape a non-Western international order more aligned with their interests. They also perceive an opportunity to attract a larger constituency of the Global South countries to their axes, expanding and consolidating the Brics nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This will have serious implications for India’s positioning in the shifting geopolitical terrain. 

How are Russia and China reshaping the global order? 

One, they claim to be the important victors of the Second World War, contributing more than the US and the West in defeating fascism and Japanese imperialism. The international order established after the war, they claim, has their imprint and they are the cofounders of the United Nations (UN) and the architects and upholders of the UN Charter. They accuse the US of falsely claiming that the post-war order was its creation, and of now threatening its demolition. China and Russia are now providing the “correct perspective” on the war and its aftermath, and it is their international responsibility to preserve the order, which they had a major role in constructing. Mr Xi said the two countries “must firmly maintain the post-war international order”. 

Two, Russia and China have special responsibilities as great powers. “In the face of unilateralist counter-currents, bullying, and acts of power politics, China is working together with Russia to shoulder the special responsibilities of major countries as permanent members of the UN Security Council,” Mr Xi said. 

“The two sides should jointly resist any attempt to disrupt and undermine China-Russia friendship and mutual trust,” he added.

This is a clear message to Mr Putin that he should not fall prey to Mr Trump’s blandishments at the expense of China. 

Three, the Russia-China partnership is driven by the personal relationship between the two leaders, and this could be its weakness. On this, Mr Putin said he and the Chinese President “personally control all aspects of Russia-China partnership and do all we can to expand the cooperation on bilateral issues and the international agenda alike.” Mr Xi did not echo this, and it would be unlike a Chinese leader to do so. But there is no doubt that both enjoy a rare personal chemistry. 

Four, there is little doubt that any US effort to detach Russia from China or, in common parlance, to do a “Reverse Nixon on China” is unrealistic. Russia is heavily dependent on China, which has provided it with an economic lifeline in the face of sweeping Western sanctions. The relationship has become symbiotic. For China, having a benign neighbour to its extensive territories in the north enables its southern expansion. It gives China “strategic depth”. This is not fully appreciated by analysts. 

What are the implications for India? 

One should expect Russia to become more aligned with China and less sensitive to Indian interests. 

The efficacy of India’s military partnership with the US and the West, in general, may diminish as China emerges as a peer technological power with comparable military capabilities. 

While the overall power gap between India and Pakistan may continue to expand, China appears determined to upgrade Pakistan’s military capabilities, sufficient to ensure local parity with India. The most recent military exchanges across the Line of Control and the international boundary bear this out. 

A thorough review and re-setting of our national security objectives are unavoidable.

The author is a former foreign secretary