Shivakumar's crucial weekend may open a new chapter for Karnataka Congress

Siddaramaiah's Budget vow and Shivakumar's cryptic remarks revive debate on a stalled power-sharing deal and set the stage for a fresh tussle in Bengaluru

Earlier this week, Karnataka politics saw a decisive turning point. Two remarks highlighted this. 

“When I first became finance minister, I was mocked that this Kuruba can’t even count sheep. I took that as a challenge and went on to present 16 Budgets,” Chief Minister Siddaramaiah said as he presented the state Budget earlier this week. He added: “I’ll present the 17th Budget, too.” The Congress leadership in the state tried to look carefully expressionless. 

Within days, his deputy and state Congress chief, D K Shivakumar, presented an enigma wrapped in a  mystery and cloaked as a threat when he said at a party event: “I cannot hold the post (of Congress chief) permanently ... it has already been five and a half years and in March it will be six.” When asked about leadership change in the state government, he advised reporters to “consult an astrologer”. And so, Karnataka’s quest for a November revolution ended — not with a bang but with a whimper. 

The background is well known. In November, the Congress government completed two and a half years of its tenure in power. According to a supposed understanding reached between the two tallest leaders in the Congress in the state in 2023 just after the Assembly polls, Mr Siddaramaiah would be chief minister for the first half of the five-year term, followed by Mr Shivakumar. In the interim Mr Shivakumar was made deputy chief minister. 

Congress General Secretary K C Venugopal may have unwittingly (though this is unlikely) had earlier provided substance to the power-sharing arrangement by saying that Mr Shivakumar would serve as state party president until the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, suggesting he might get another job after that. 

In Karnataka rotating chief ministerships have not worked so well. In 2006, Janata Dal (Secular) leader H D Kumaraswamy, now a Union minister, engineered a kind of coup to form a coalition government with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 45 legislators on his side as against the BJP’s 79. He had forged a gentleman’s agreement to share power for 20 months each before the Assembly polls, which were supposed to be held in 2009, but reneged on his part of the deal. B S Yediyurappa became chief minister, but for just seven days, as Mr Kumaraswamy withdrew support from the coalition, forcing the government to fall. That was a rotation arrangement between two different parties. In this case, even if Mr Shivakumar wanted to oust Mr Siddaramaiah, whose support would he take? The shrewd politician that he is, Mr Siddaramaiah figured his rival had no option but to lump it. And the high command in New Delhi saw no reason to rock the boat. 

The Congress in Rajasthan saw the same story being played out. In 2018, Sachin Pilot, state Congress president, led the Congress to victory in the Assembly elections but Ashok Gehlot became chief minister. Mr Pilot, who implied some assurances had been given to him at the time of the elections, rebelled, tarring his own government with charges of corruption and preparing to jump ship by forming a government with the BJP’s help. The party averted that crisis but he never got to be chief minister. 

For Mr Shivakumar, the stakes are higher. Mr Pilot is not yet 50 and has many more years in politics. Mr Shivakumar is 63, and if the Congress doesn’t return to power — as seems likely — in 2028, when Assembly elections are due, he will have to wait till 2033 to become chief minister. He will be 71. 

Mr Shivakumar is a Vokkaliga. Heads of the Vokkaliga mutts openly backed him for chief minister in 2023. But it has turned into an interminable wait and the religious leaders are privately wondering if they made a mistake in putting their weight behind him.

With Mr Siddaramaiah’s announcement that he would be the one presenting the next state Budget as well, Mr Shivakumar has begun making his moves. Many of the members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) loyal to him are camping in New Delhi. Mr Shivakumar reckons this is the time to strike — when the party leadership is on the defensive after the disastrous performance in Bihar. His MLAs have never shied away from reminding anyone who’s listening that he is the biggest resource-person for the Congress. There are many examples of his resource-raising and organisational skills: In 2002, when he corralled MLAs in a resort to prevent floor crossing, which would have caused the state government (in which the Congress figured) in Maharashtra to fall, and on many later occasions. 

The upcoming weekend could be the start of another chapter in the life of the Congress government in Karnataka.