With a strong LS showing, Chirag Paswan readies a bold play in Bihar

While BJP backs Nitish Kumar as chief minister, Chirag Paswan-son of Dalit icon Ramvilas Paswan-isn't hiding his readiness for the role

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has already declared that Nitish Kumar will continue as chief minister if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comes to power in Bihar in the elections, likely to be held October-November. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) state unit chief Dilip Jaiswal has echoed this. The implication is that even if the performance of Nitish Kumar’s party, the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), is below par, the chief minister will still be Nitish Kumar.

 

Yet posters are up in Bihar: “Next CM, Chirag Paswan”. Another one, in Hindi, says: “Na danga hoga na phassad hoga na baval hoga; kyonki hamara mukhyamantri Chirag Paswan hoga” (no more riots, no more violence, no more frenzy because our chief minister will be Chirag Paswan).

 

Chirag, the son of one of India’s best-known Dalit leaders, Ramvilas Paswan, is not denying that he is ready and able to take on the job. He has declared that his thinking is different from that of his father, who opted to play a role in the politics of India rather than the state, becoming a Union minister under six Prime Ministers. 

 

Chirag’s motto in this election is: “Bihar First, Bihari First”. He hasn’t ruled out the possibility of contesting the Assembly elections, though he is a Union minister with charge of food processing. As minister, he is asserting himself at every step, informing Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others that if the Madhya Pradesh minister for tribal affairs, Vijay Shah, had been in his party, he would have been expelled for life. Mr Shah spoke loosely about Col Sophiya Qureshi, considered the face of Operation Sindoor. Along with the JD(U), Chirag’s Lok Janashakti Party-Ram Vilas (LJP-RV) had brought Muslim votes to the NDA in the past.

 

What gives Chirag the confidence now? In the last Assembly polls (2020), he had walked out of the NDA, fielded candidates in 137 seats, and won only one, from Matihani in Bihar. His party’s vote share was 5.7 per cent, and it is reasonable to expect that it ate into the JD(U)’s votes in more than 25 seats, leading to the party’s suboptimal performance. The assessment is that in more than 25 seats, the JD(U)’s prospects were damaged by Chirag’s party.

 

But its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election was impressive. It contested just five seats and won all, getting 7 per cent of the vote. He is convinced he is the most credible face of a large section of the Dalits in Bihar, especially as the contest is to capture the vote of the youth, though many in the BJP don’t agree.

 

Chirag flirted with a film career — in one Bollywood movie his co-star was Kangana Ranaut, also a Lok Sabha MP. But eventually he was drafted into the family business of politics. While he was alive, patriarch Ram Vilas managed the contradictions. But when he died, Pashupati Paras, Ram Vilas’s younger brother, split the party. Chirag always had a sneaking feeling it was the BJP that played a role. When the BJP included Mr Paras, not Chirag, in the NDA, he walked out, lonely and friendless. The 2020 polls proved his faction still had political capital in terms of vote percentage. Dalits in the BJP unit in the state say acidly that his Lok Sabha performance should be seen as a success of the BJP, not the LJP-RV brand.

 

So far Chirag has been a model ally, voting in favour of the Waqf Bill and justifying the decision vigorously to his Muslim supporters. But as the polls approach, talks will begin in a few days on seat sharing. This is an intricate exercise and it is possible Chirag’s mildly hectoring tone is dictated by this. He has to win seats to make a bid for chief ministership — but he can win only if he gets to contest the seats first.

 

But all options are open. Bonhomie was evident at a recent meeting between him and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, and the debrief from their two parties was: “Oh, didn’t you know? Politics apart, they’re like brothers!” Tejashwi has publicly advised Chirag to kick the Union ministership aside and return to Bihar to make it a better place — with him, obviously. That won’t happen. But watch for more developments on this front.