 "Best of BS Opinion: India must make rational choices on Trump tariffs")
India must accept the fact that it simply cannot simply exit the US export market, its biggest, says our lead editorial. For example, it's textile and apparel exports alone in 2024 were worth $10.8 billion; other sectors will also be impacted, and there remains a serious risk of large-scale job losses in the face of such steep duties. Despite Trump's recalcitrance, India must continue to engage with the US, while being ready to handle unusual situations to protect its interests. At the same time, there is no denying India's long-standing ties with Russia, which cannot be diluted. For now, though, India can perhaps shift its Russian oil imports piecemeal, which will add only marginal costs to its import bill, making the shift manageable. On the other hand, the near-closure of the US market could have a bigger impact on the current account deficits, with its concomitant effects on growth and employment. At such a juncture, India should decide rationally instead of getting locked into an antagonistic position with the US.
As artificial intelligence starts to enter increasing spheres of work, our lead editorial argues that India must start preparing for this disruption. The recent lay-offs at TCS signal a deeper shift of rapid and irreversible integration of AI across industries. India's IT sector has been a fairly stable provider of jobs for the middle-class and a sudden disruption is bound to have wider social and economic knock-on effects. Unfortunately, there are no quick-fixes for this, given companies can't be stopped from using new technology to boost productivity and stay competitive. The government's Skilling For AI Readiness (SOAR) programme is welcome but must be seen as the start of this agenda, not the end. Such initiatives, the editorial says, must go beyond just school education, and the nation needs to prepare for this AI shift collectively.
Our lead columnist today, T N Ninan, delves into history to explain India's current predicament vis-a-vis the Trump tariffs. He recalls how US bullying in 1853 paved the way for the transformation of Japan's economy, military, and society. Today, India is right to decry the tariffs, but its weaknesses have been exposed. Trump can bully India because it can be bullied, he argues, largely because it has under-performed in ways that go beyond the rate of economic growth. What's more, the much-touted 1991 reforms were only half-done, and so-called second-generation reforms have been fitful and inadequate. Meanwhile, too much power is concentrated in a handful of conglomerates that are inward-looking and not leading a national outreach. Finally, our net FDI being reduced to near-zero is a stark message about investor confidence. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh once said that the world opens up to you if you are seen as America’s friend. India should keep that in mind and make rational choices, given there is no country that can take the space that the US currently occupies. Any talk of using Brics and the global South as alternatives is delusional, at best.
Our second columnist Debashis Basu joins issue with the idea being thrown around that the Trump tariffs could act as a trigger for second-generation reforms in the Indian economy. He says that such suggestions only highlight structural inefficiencies that have continued through multiple governments, and through every so-called crisis. In fact, he takes the position that none of these inefficiencies can be fixed, given poor governance from village-levels panchayats all the way up to the Centre. Basu also points out most Indian reform so far has not been the fallout of some crisis. Unfortunately, so-called reforms have been half-hearted measures even as bureaucratic control and corruption remain undisturbed, with low accountability and impact on competitiveness. Signature tax reforms, such as the GST, have only increased the government's revenue, which it spends on social schemes and capex, but has not led to increased productivity or competitiveness. What India lacks, he notes, ar not ideas, but the intent and the will to implement them.
In today's book review, Alexandre Jacobs looks at two books that capture the digital zeitgeist in minute detail, and give him hope that the smartphone is not destroying society, as many fear. The first, Algospeak by Adam Aleksic, considers how digital habits are creating their own linguistic universe, not very unlike how modern English has evolved since Chaucer. The new digital linguists, for example, are creating words that are tailored to bypass digital censors, and subsequently enter normal usage, in the best traditions of Normal Mailer. The second book, Aiden Arata's You Have a New Memory, is a collection of essays about the internet’s effects on identity and mental health, given its ability to suddenly present old photos or memories that an individual would perhaps like to be best left in the past. With this book, Arata reveals how phone use has affected her with memories both pollutive and beautiful.