Best of BS Opinion: US tariff risks, India's police reforms, and Bitcoin

Here are the best of Business Standard's opinion pieces for today

India’s economic growth is projected to stabilise around 6.5 per cent in FY26, but external risks could disrupt this trajectory. While fiscal consolidation is expected to continue with a fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent of GDP in FY26, uncertainties around capital flows and the rupee remain. Inflation is projected to decline, potentially allowing for monetary policy easing. However, US trade policy uncertainty remains the key downside risk, and India’s policy focus should shift toward structural reforms to achieve higher growth post-FY26, notes our first editorial. 

Amid these economic uncertainties, concerns over the rule of law persist within India’s policing system. A recent study has highlighted a troubling disregard for the rule of law within India’s police forces. The “Status of Policing in India Report” finds that coercive interrogation tactics, a colonial-era legacy, persist despite democratic reforms. Our second editorial highlights that India remains one of the few countries yet to ratify the UN Convention Against Torture or pass a central law against custodial violence. Without institutional reforms and legal training, the vision of a Viksit Bharat will remain distant. 

Meanwhile, in the face of growing global economic uncertainty, India should pursue unilateral tariff reductions and diversify its cross-border activities to mitigate US trade policy risks, argues Ajay Shah in his column. He highlights the America+China+1 strategy, where US firms seek alternatives to mitigate tariff risks, as an opportunity for India. Moving toward pro-globalisation policies and reducing economic nationalism could enhance India’s trade ties and strengthen its economic trajectory. 

Complementing this view, Rajani Sinha and Mihika Sharma caution that India’s relatively low trade exposure (exports at 21 per cent of GDP) may not shield it from the impact of new US tariffs. A 25 per cent levy on automobiles and components could cost India $3.1 billion annually in export losses. The rupee is projected to weaken to 88-89 by FY26, while foreign investment inflows have sharply declined, widening the current account deficit to 1.1 per cent of GDP.  

Shifting from policy to innovation, Will Stephenson reviews THE MYSTERIOUS MR. NAKAMOTO: A Fifteen-Year Quest to Unmask the Secret Genius Behind Crypto by Benjamin Wallace, which explores Bitcoin’s origins and its ideological roots in techno-libertarian circles. While the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto remains elusive, the book highlights Bitcoin’s growing relevance as governments, including the US administration, consider establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves to navigate future financial uncertainties. 

Stay tuned!