Trump wants Nobel Peace Prize this year, but what are his chances?

The Nobel Peace Prize 2025 will be announced on October 10 in Oslo, with Donald Trump among 338 nominees. Experts, however, say his chances remain slim amid stronger contenders

As the Nobel Peace Prize 2025 nears its announcement on October 10 (Friday), speculation has intensified over whether US President Donald Trump could finally secure the honour he has long claimed to deserve.

 

The award will be declared at 11:00 CEST (2:30 pm IST) by the Norwegian Nobel Committee at the Nobel Institute in Oslo. Trump has repeatedly said that “nobody has done what he has,” arguing that his international efforts merit the Peace Prize.

 

Although he was nominated during his first term, he never won. This year, Trump has cited his claimed role in resolving seven global conflicts, from India-Pakistan to Armenia-Azerbaijan, as evidence of his contribution to global peace.

 

Trump’s claim: ‘We settled seven wars’

 

Speaking at a White House press briefing earlier this week, Trump said:

 

“I have no idea… Marco would tell you we settled seven wars. We’re close to settling an eighth. I think we’ll end up settling the Russia situation… I don’t think anybody in history has settled that many.”

 

He also expressed frustration at not yet being recognised, calling the omission an “insult” to the United States.

 

Trump’s supporters point to his mediation claims in South Asia, West Asia, and the Caucasus region. He has often credited himself for helping ease tensions between India and Pakistan in May, though the Indian government maintains that the ceasefire resulted from direct talks between the two countries.

 

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir have thanked Trump for his mediation efforts, while US officials have remained circumspect about the extent of Washington’s involvement.   

 

Renewed push amid Gaza peace talks

 

Trump’s renewed push for the Nobel comes amid recent developments in West Asia, where Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a Gaza peace plan, unveiled at a White House press conference alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

 

Observers note that the timing of Trump’s bid — coinciding with the agreement — appears deliberate, aimed at reinforcing his image as a global peace broker.

 

What do experts say

 

Despite the publicity, analysts believe Trump’s chances remain limited. The Nobel Committee traditionally rewards long-term peacebuilding, international cooperation, and institutional stability rather than high-profile political deals.

 

“No, it will not be Trump this year,” said Peter Wallensteen, Swedish scholar and peace expert, in an AFP interview. “But perhaps next year? By then, the dust will have settled around his initiatives, including the Gaza crisis.”

 

According to the Associated Press, the committee often favours individuals and organisations advancing human rights, humanitarian aid, or nuclear disarmament rather than state leaders seeking recognition.   

 

Who are the top contenders for 2025?

 

This year’s prize has 338 candidates, including 244 individuals and 94 organisations, whose nominations closed on January 31. Late submissions are typically considered for the following year.

 

Last year’s Nobel Peace Prize went to Nihon Hidankyo, the association of Japan’s atomic bomb survivors, for its lifelong work toward nuclear disarmament.

 

Notable 2025 nominees include:

 

• Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms: Volunteer networks aiding civilians amid war and famine.

• Yulia Navalnaya: Widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, for her advocacy of human rights.

• The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR): Known for global election monitoring.

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres: For his mediation in multiple global conflicts.

• UNRWA (UN Relief and Works Agency): For humanitarian work in Gaza and Palestinian territories.

• UNHCR (UN Refugee Agency): For refugee protection and resettlement efforts.

• ICC and ICJ: Recognised for pursuing international justice amid global conflicts.

• Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and Reporters Without Borders (RSF): For defending press freedom during a deadly year for journalists.

 

Other official nominations include:

 

• Imran Khan: Former Pakistan PM, for human rights and democracy advocacy.

• Anwar Ibrahim: Malaysian Prime Minister, for promoting regional peace and dialogue.

• Elon Musk: For advocating freedom of speech and digital transparency.

 

While Trump’s self-declared peace achievements have put him in the headlines, the Nobel Committee has historically leaned toward grassroots movements, humanitarian agencies, and non-governmental actors.