US revises economic growth estimate to 3.4% annual pace for Oct-Dec quarter

The US economy grew at a solid 3.4 per cent annual pace from October through December, the government said Thursday in an upgrade from its previous estimate.

The government had previously estimated that the economy grew at a 3.2 per cent annual rate last quarter.

The Commerce Department's revised measure of the nation's gross domestic product the total output of goods and services confirmed that the economy decelerated from its sizzling 4.9 per cent rate of expansion in the July-September quarter.

But last quarter's growth was still a solid performance, coming in the face of higher interest rates and powered by growing consumer spending, exports and business investment in buildings and software. It marked the sixth straight quarter in which the economy has grown at an annual rate above 2 per cent.

For all of 2023, the US economy the world's biggest grew 2.5 per cent, up from 1.9 per cent in 2022. In the current January-March quarter, the economy is believed to be growing at a slower but still decent 2.1 per cent annual rate, according to a forecasting model issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

The economy's resilience over the past two years has repeatedly defied predictions that the ever-higher borrowing rates the Federal Reserve engineered to fight inflation would lead to waves of layoffs and probably a recession. Beginning in March 2022, the Fed jacked up its benchmark rate 11 times, to a 23-year high, making borrowing much more expensive for businesses and households.

Yet the economy has kept growing, and employers have kept hiring at a robust average of 251,000 added jobs a month last year and 265,000 a month from December through February.

At the same time, inflation has steadily cooled: After peaking at 9.1 per cent in June 2022, it has dropped to 3.2 per cent, though it remains above the Fed's 2 per cent target.

The combination of sturdy growth and easing inflation has raised hopes that the Fed can manage to achieve a soft landing by fully conquering inflation without triggering a recession.

Thursday's report was the Commerce Department's third and final estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth. It will release its first estimate of January-March growth on April 25.