Recovery tracker: Office visits at 78% of pre-Covid days as cases fall

Roads see more traffic and power generation a brighter week

As the number of Covid cases falls, weekly indicators of economic activity are looking up. Power generation is now showing double-digit gains over 2019, and there is an uptick in mobility, too. Other indicators such as traffic and emissions are also on a recovery path, though more in some parts of the country than others.

There were 4,426 million units of electricity generated in India on a seven-day rolling average basis for the week ending Sunday, July 11, as many parts of the country faced heat wave-like conditions and irrigation demand remained high due to the paddy sowing season. Analysts believe that power demand also rose last week as Covid-19 restrictions on economic activity ended across the country, and many industries are ramping up production to meet the demand backlog. The latest week’s numbers are 17 per cent higher than the corresponding period in 2019. Year 2019 is used since it predates Covid-19 hitting India. Gains are even higher at 22 per cent over 2020 (see chart 1).

Visits to the workplace are also up to nearly 78 per cent of pre-Covid days. This is based on mobility data from search engine Google, which tracks people’s movements based on anonymised location data. Released with a lag, the latest data is as of July 7. Essential shopping, including grocery and pharmacy visits, are 19.3 per cent higher than the pre-pandemic period in February 2019. Retail and recreation visits are still down 26.4 per cent, while visits to parks are down 13.4 per cent. Commuting also remains depressed and is down 15 per cent on average (see chart 2).

Statistics from global location technology firm TomTom International show that traffic congestion has picked up in major cities. New Delhi traffic is now at 63 per cent of normal times, while Mumbai traffic is back 58 per cent. New Delhi’s relative traffic recovery has overtaken Mumbai’s over the last fortnight (see chart 3).

The Indian Railways carried 26.4 per cent more goods (in terms of tonnage) for the seven days ending July 11, than in the same period last year. Earnings from the goods carried are up 30 per cent (see chart 4). Both figures are similar to the numbers in the previous week.

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide, which comes from industrial activity and vehicles. Levels had dropped as the country went into lockdown in 2020. Delhi emissions are 8.1 per cent below 2019 levels based 

on a seven-day rolling average basis until July 12. Mumbai’s emissions remain below 2019 and 2020 levels (see charts 5, 6).

 

Business Standard tracks these weekly indicators to get a sense of how the economy is currently doing. Official macroeconomic numbers are often released with a lag. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators as different countries went into lockdown to control the Covid-19 pandemic.

The number of daily Covid-19 cases in India has fallen to around 41,300 as of July 12. It was over 400,000 in the first week of May.