Why rise in Kerala's coronavirus cases may not signal a new surge

Kerala is the only large Indian state where Covid-19 cases have been increasing consistently, but this is unlikely to be the start of a new wave in the state, say health experts

Over two weeks to July 11, average daily new Covid-19 cases in Kerala have increased by 15.2% and the state accounts for about one in every four new infections in India, data from Covid19India.org show. No other state outside the north east is showing such growth in new Covid-19 cases. The Indian Council of Medical Research has projected, in some scenarios, that India's third wave could begin as early as August. Could the rise in Kerala then be heralding the start of the third wave in India?

Unlikely, say health experts, pointing to the absence of a steep rise in infections.