CRISIL DRIP: As monsoon withdraws, deficiency up in kharif growing states

As of the week ended September 19, rainfall deficiency at the all-India level rose to 10% below the long-period average (LPA). In the preceding week, it was only 8% deficient. Deficiency rose in key five kharif growing states of Punjab, West Bengal, Haryana, Bihar and Gujarat and turned somewhat deficient in Rajasthan and parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. 

With rains receding, a lot more states are seeing weak rains. This could impact sowing of a few crops. For instance, until the previous week, only groundnut and rice were somewhat impacted, now few others - soybean, maize, cotton, tur and jowar - have also been added to the list.

But healthy irrigation cover in some states and for certain crops has come to the rescue. On an overall basis, so far only groundnut is under material pressure.
 

Irrigation is an important determinant to assess impact of rainfall on states and crops. Rainfall volume data by itself is therefore insufficient to gauge the distribution impact. 

That is where CRISIL's Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter, or DRIP, provides a better assessment of deficiency because it considers the irrigation buffer available for states and crops. The higher the CRISIL DRIP score, the more adverse the impact of deficient rains.

Note: DRIP scores are for rainfall data from June 1 to August 29 for each year Source: Indian Meteorological Department, Ministry of Agriculture, CRISIL

This week's DRIP scores continue to highlight the strain in Gujarat, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh. But this week Maharashtra was added to the list as rains turned marginally deficient in certain parts. In these states, scores are higher than last year as well as above the average of the past five years.

But crop-wise DRIP scores show stress in more than one crop. DRIP scores are highest for groundnut (largely cultivated in rain-deficient Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh), followed by soybean (Rajasthan and Maharashtra), maize (Bihar), cotton (Gujarat and Maharashtra) and rice (Andhra Pradesh). Some stress is cited for tur (Gujarat and Maharashtra) and jowar (Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra).