Gold hit an all-time highest in Mumbai's popular Zaveri Bazaar on Wednesday, following a global move by investors who sought to take shelter in bullion on concerns of geo-political tensions and global economic slowdown. On a medium term basis, the upsurge has been so swift that between December and now, gold price has risen over 12 per cent. However, analysts foresee near-term obstacles for a further sharp rise, and customers are deferring purchases.
Standard gold rose by 0.5 per cent or Rs 170 to close at the highest-ever level of RS 33,725 per 10 grams, leaving jewellery shops bereft of footfalls. Buyers were seen deferring fresh purchases on expectations of a decline in prices in the near future. Pure gold moved up to hit an all-time high of Rs 33,850 per 10 grams on Wednesday, from Rs 33,680 the previous day.
Gold was up over one per cent in late Tuesday trade in the London spot market after the London Bullion Markets Association (LBMA) went optimistic on price movements during the rest of 2019. In its report, a survey conducted by the LBMA forecast a gold price high side average of $1,405 an oz, up $60 or 4.5 per cent from the current trading level of $1,344 an oz.
“Gold has more resistance than support. During the past seven or eight years, prices have come closer to $1,400 an oz at least on six or seven occasions, but failed to breach this benchmark due to some reason or the other. This time again, fresh triggers require for gold to surpass the psychological barrier of $1,400 an oz in the international markets. Triggers such as Sino-US trade talks may spur selling pressure, but the same time, limited upside does exist in gold prices,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Director, Commtrendz Research.
Meanwhile, the LBMS report suggests gold price will post a modest gain of 1.8 per cent this year, though this figure is somewhat overshadowed by a $325 trading range.
“The markets have factored in some of the downside risks of Brexit and US-China trade wars, other factors such as US real interest rates, strength/weakness of the dollar, the likely impact of geo-political factors and the pace of global economic growth continue to provide some uncertainty,” said the report.
Leading global precious metals analysts forecast gold to move between $1,170–1,365 an oz throughout the rest of the current calendar year.
“Though the price of gold is rising, it still has to cross a decisive bear channel that comes around $1,355-1,360 level. Bears may not leave this channel easily and the price could come down,” said Debajit Saha, Senior Analyst - Precious Metals Demand, GFMS Thomson Reuters.
Regardless of global movements, gold prices in India are nearing Rs 34,000 per 10 grams in the physical markets.
“There has been pin drop silence in jewellery stores with hardly any customers visiting for fresh ornaments buying. One or two customers come only to exchange old ornaments with new ones or to pick up old orders to meet immediate needs. Even scheme related purchases are being deferred today on expectations of a price fall,” said Kumar Jain, Director, Umedmal Tilokchand Zaveri, a bullion dealer and jewellery retailer in Zaveri Bazaar.
Silver followed suit and closed with a gain of one per cent to Rs 40,630 a kg on Wednesday.