Crisil projects 3.2% headline inflation for 2025-26, sees room for rate cut

Research and ratings firm Crisil said that the headline inflation during 2025-26 is projected to be 3.2 per cent, lower than its earlier estimate of 3.5 per cent.

In its latest report, Crisil said that the moderation implies a decline of 140 basis points in CPI inflation during this financial year, which is likely to give space for monetary easing.

It said the RBI may cut rates by another 25 basis points this year.

According to Crisil, lower inflation and reduced interest rates should increase domestic demand in the economy as global headwinds mount.

The report also said that the excessive rains during the kharif season is a risk as it could cause disruptions in key horticulture and foodgrain-growing regions like Punjab which is facing its worst floods in four decades.

 

CPI inflation inched up to 2.1 per cent in August 2025, from 1.6 per cent in July, moving above the RBI tolerance threshold of two per cent.

Food inflation has started to move up from low levels but trails the headline inflation, the report said.