India's copper import bill crosses ₹1 trillion as structural gaps widen

India's copper imports have surged more than 350 per cent in less than a decade amid rising demand, stagnant mining output, and weak refining economics

Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently said India had become a net importer of copper after domestic plants shut down amid protests, underlining the country’s increasing dependence on imports at a time when demand is rising sharply from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and electronics manufacturing.

 

Trade data reviewed by Business Standard shows India’s copper imports have climbed from Rs 22,856 crore in FY17 to Rs 1.03 trillion in FY26 till February, marking a rise of more than 350 per cent in less than a decade.

 

According to industry experts and policy studies, the surge reflects not just the shuttering of copper plants due to strikes, as pointed out by the PM, but also broader structural weaknesses across India’s copper ecosystem.

 

 

Data shared by the International Copper Association India showed that in FY18, India’s copper demand stood at around 1.1 million tonnes while domestic production was roughly 800,000 tonnes. India was then a net exporter of copper cathodes, with exports at around 334,000 tonnes.

 

By FY25, however, domestic demand had risen sharply to nearly 1.8 million tonnes, while production declined to around 600,000 tonnes. India consequently became a net importer of copper cathodes, with imports reaching around 221,000 tonnes.

 

According to Mayur Karmarkar, managing director of the International Copper Association India, the sector is facing simultaneous pressures from rising demand, stagnant mining output, weak investment in refining capacity, high financing costs, and deteriorating global refining economics. "India’s copper challenge is much larger and structural," he said.

 

A recent report by the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) noted that despite possessing significant copper reserves, India’s mining production has remained stagnant.

 

Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL), India’s sole primary copper producer, has seen ore production remain largely flat despite repeated expansion targets. The report noted that HCL had aimed to increase ore production capacity from 3.6 million tonnes per annum in 2010 to over 12 million tonnes by FY17. However, production stood at only around 3.8 million tonnes in 2023, with the target now pushed to FY31.

 

The stagnation is not merely a matter of execution; it also reflects gaps in policy design and incentives. “Existing mining and exploration policies have not sufficiently attracted private players, leaving HCL as the sole primary copper miner in India,” said Tanima Pal, research associate at CSEP.

 

These policy shortcomings are being compounded by ageing mines and declining ore quality. “Existing copper mines are also nearing exhaustion, and ore grades are depleting, resulting in modest and fluctuating production,” she added.

 

The CSEP report also noted that India accounts for barely 1 per cent of global mineral exploration expenditure, limiting the discovery and development of new copper deposits.

 

Karmarkar said poor investment conditions and high financing costs were also constraining domestic refining expansion. “Copper refining is highly capital-intensive and working-capital-intensive. Indian refiners borrow at 8-9 per cent interest rates, while Japanese refiners borrow at near-zero rates. Financing itself creates a 4-5 per cent cost disadvantage,” he said.

 

He added that global refining economics had weakened sharply due to falling treatment and refining charges (TCRC), the fees smelters earn for converting copper concentrate into refined metal. “Historically, smelters earned positive TCRC margins. Today, in some cases, they have effectively become negative,” he said.

 

Industry players also point to India’s free trade agreements with Japan, ASEAN countries, and the UAE, which allow duty-free imports of refined copper cathodes into India. This creates an uneven playing field because several foreign refiners import copper concentrate at low duties, refine it abroad using cheaper financing, and export refined copper to India without import duties.