Datanomics: Corporation earnings may have depressed GDP growth

Even at seven per cent, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter would be a four-quarter low, though higher than 6.8 per cent in the year-ago period.

Changing projections of economic growth for the first quarter of FY2026-27 (Q1FY27) by the Monetary Policy Committee show how difficult it is to model gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts currently. Growth in profit before interest, taxes, and depreciation plus employee costs for NSE 500 non-banking, financial services, and insurance companies fell to a seven-quarter low of 7.1 per cent in Q1FY27. This roughly gives the non-financial, non-farm gross value-added (GVA). Rising deflators may cut GVA at constant prices. Crops GVA in Q1 is mainly residual rabi crops. Major effect of sub-normal monsoon would be felt in Q2FY27.