US immigrant population falls by 2.2 million as Trump fuels fear: Decoded

Fall of US Immigrant: Immigrant population in the US may have fallen by 2.2 million in six months, as Trump's second-term crackdown fuels fear, deportations and visa revocations

Immigrant population in the United States may have dropped by roughly 2 million people in the first six months of the year, according to new government data. The figures offer an early signal that President Donald Trump’s latest immigration crackdown could already be reshaping the numbers.

 

Steven Camarota, director of research at the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies, said in an analysis the estimated decline of 2.2 million foreign-born people in the Current Population Survey was the largest single-year drop in three decades. “Either something has fundamentally changed in America, or the response rate has dramatically changed,” he said.

 

 

Demographers suggest it could be both. But they also caution that the data has its limits.

 

What do the US recent immigration numbers show?

 

An analysis of raw data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey suggests the total foreign-born population fell by 2.2 million between January and July.

 

Camarota and Karen Zeigler of CIS wrote that illegal immigrants may account for 1.6 million of that decline, citing evidence of increased out-migration and tighter enforcement. “We preliminarily estimate that the number of illegal immigrants has fallen by 1.6 million in just the last six months,” they explained.

 

Findings from their analysis include:

 

1. A total fall of 2.2 million foreign-born people, the steepest six-month decline recorded in the survey’s history

2. All of the decline was among non-citizens, while the number of naturalised US citizens rose slightly

3. A 10 per cent reduction in the estimated illegal immigrant population, taking it to 14.2 million

4. A one million fall in employed foreign-born workers between January and July, alongside an increase of 2.5 million US-born workers

 

Why are experts questioning the data?

 

Julia Gelatt, associate director of US immigration policy at the Migration Policy Institute, said many households might now be fearful of admitting they are non-citizens. “Because of the atmosphere – the mass deportation campaigns, the constant announcements – immigrants might be more reticent to answer,” she told USA Today.

 

She added that respondents may be too scared to tell survey takers if they or their household members are immigrants. “They may be afraid to say they are a noncitizen,” said Gelatt.

 

Jed Kolko, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, agreed that caution was needed. “Even with fewer immigrants coming to the US and more people leaving or being deported, an annual rate of 4 million is an extraordinary number that is way outside the range of immigration estimates that leading researchers have made,” Kolko told the US-based media outlet.

 

Which Trump policies are driving the immigration Number decline?

 

The sharp drop in numbers coincides with a series of sweeping policies rolled out since Trump returned to the White House in January.

 

Visa revocations have risen sharply, often over minor infractions. Indian students in particular report their visas being cancelled under scrutiny of SEVIS and OPT programmes. Some holders say they were told to self-deport rather than apply for renewals. A recent poll suggests one in six Indian H-1B visa holders feel threatened with deportation.

 

Expanded enforcement powers under Executive Order 14159 have accelerated removals without court hearings and introduced penalties for undocumented immigrants. Other orders have suspended refugee admissions, restricted birthright citizenship for children of non-citizens, and ended categorical parole programmes, including CBP One appointments.

 

A new law, dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill,” allocates $45 billion to expand detention through 2029. Alongside this, the Justice Department has been exploring denaturalisation of naturalised citizens linked to alleged fraud or security concerns.

 

Sanctuary cities are also under pressure, with threats of lost federal funding and even suggestions of military intervention if they do not cooperate. Meanwhile, lawmakers say oversight of detention centres has been obstructed by rules requiring one week’s notice before visits, a policy now facing a constitutional challenge.

 

 Number

 

The Current Population Survey samples about 60,000 households each month, compared to the larger American Community Survey that draws on 2 million households. Because of its smaller sample, experts say it may exaggerate shifts in the population.

 

Even Camarota, whose team published the analysis, conceded that stepped-up enforcement could be prompting some foreign-born respondents to avoid the survey or not identify themselves. “It is possible that the observed decline in the foreign-born was due, at least in part, to a greater reluctance by immigrants to participate,” he wrote.