US tariff shift opens narrow window for India's farm exports

US tariff exemptions on select farm goods offer India narrow export boost, but gains will stay limited unless India expands scale, strengthens cold-chain capacity and diversifies agricultural exports

A White House order that came into effect on November 13 has carved out a long list of agricultural items from the United States’ reciprocal tariff regime introduced in April. Coffee, tea, tropical fruits, fruit juices, cocoa, spices, bananas, tomatoes, oranges, beef and select fertilisers will now revert to standard non-discriminatory duties from 13 November — largely because the US does not produce these items in meaningful quantities.  The exemption list is substantial, but India’s current presence in these categories is small. Against America’s $50.6 billion import basket for the identified products, India supplies only $548 million — almost entirely driven by spices and a few niche horticulture lines, according to an estimate by  Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). 

Among the items exempt from reciprocal tariffs, Indian shipments to the US remain concentrated: pepper-capsicum preparations ($181 mn), ginger-turmeric-curry spices ($84 mn), anise-cumin seeds ($85 mn), cardamom-nutmeg ($15 mn), and tea ($68 mn).                                       

“The shift in US tariff policy could marginally strengthen India’s competitive position in spices and niche horticulture, but the broader gains will accrue mainly to major Latin American, African, and ASEAN farm exporters unless India expands scale, builds cold-chain capacity, and diversifies its agricultural export basket,” GTRI said in a research brief.