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Nifty Realty stocks trade below 200-DMAs; index down 18% in Jan; what next?

Technical charts suggest that stocks such as Prestige Estates, Lodha and Sobha can fall up to 32 per cent from here on, while the Nifty Realty index can crack by another 14 per cent.

Stock broker, broker, trader, marker, markets, stock markets, stock, market crash, market fall, loss

Rex Cano Mumbai

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A 21-month bull-run in the realty stocks is under threat with the Nifty Realty index tumbling up to 18 per cent since the start of the year 2025. If the present loss persists or extends by the end of the month, this will be the Realty index biggest monthly loss since March 2020, Covid-19 related sell-off.  In the preceding 21 months, the Nifty Realty index had zoomed 172 per cent from levels of 387 at the end of Marcy 2023. In the calendar year 2024, the Realty index gained 34.4 per cent as against an 8.8 per cent rally in the NSE Nifty 50 index.  However, the tables have turned thus far in 2025. The Nifty Realty index is the worst performing index in the stock market, while the benchmark Nifty 50 is down merely 2 per cent.  Among individual stocks, Prestige Estates and Sobha, which were the lead gainers in the 21-month period, rallying around 200 per cent, are now the top losers down over 22 per cent in January. That apart, Macrotech Developers (Lodha), Oberoi Realty and Godrej Properties are the other major losers, down around 20 per cent thus far.  Technically, the Nifty Realty index is seen trading below its long-term moving average, the 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average) since January 06, 2025. Moreover, at present, all the 10 Realty index constitutes are also trading below their respective 200-DMAs.  ALSO READ: BSE Realty index hits 10-month low; Oberoi, Prestige, Lodha fall up to 7%  Recently, Aditya Birla Real Estate (formerly known as Century Textiles) reported its Q3 earnings. The company incurred a net loss of Rs 42.37 crore as against a net profit of Rs 79.95 crore in the year ago period. Total revenue was down 16.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) at Rs 946.21 crore from Rs 1,095.9 crore.  Against this background, here's a technical check on 5 stocks from the realty space.  Nifty Realty  Current Level: 881  Downside Risk: 14.3%  Support: 864  Resistance: 910; 940  The Nifty Realty index is seen trading in a fairly oversold zone on the daily scale. More importantly, the index is seen testing support at its 20-MMA (Monthly Moving Average) at 864, the key support for the 21-month rally. As long as the index respects the same, the index could witness a pullback rally. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  However, breach and sustained trade below the same can trigger a fall towards 755 levels - i.e. a downside risk of 14.3 per cent from present levels. Interim support for the index is placed at 797. On the other hand, in case of a pullback, the Realty index can spurt to 970 levels, with intermediate resistance seen at 910 and 940 levels.  ALSO READ: Why mid, smallcap stocks are crashing in 2025? 70% stocks below 200-DMA   Prestige Estates  Current Price: Rs 1,362  Downside Risk: 32.5%  Support: Rs 1,230; Rs 1,160; Rs 1,100  Resistance: Rs 1,500; Rs 1,600  Prestige Estates stock is on the verge of giving a downward breakout on the weekly scale, i.e. if the stock closes below Rs 1,398 on Friday. As such, the medium-term trend for the stock could then turn bearish, with upside capped around Rs 1,600 levels. For now, the stock seems to be seeking support around its 20-MMA, which stands at Rs 1,280. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  On the daily scale, the stock is trading in a fairly oversold zone, and a pullback towards Rs 1,500 cannot be ruled out. On the flip side, break of the key support levels, can trigger a sharper fall towards Rs 920 levels, with interim support likely around Rs 1,230, Rs 1,160 and Rs 1,100.  Sobha  Current Price: Rs 1,238  Downside Risk: 28.1%  Support: Rs 1,143; Rs 1,100  Resistance: Rs 1,350; Rs 1,420  Sobha is seen trading below its 20-MMA, which stands at Rs 1,267. The key momentum oscillators are also placed in favour of the bears, thus hinting towards a likely negative bias ahead. The stock now seems on course to test support at its 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs 1,143; below exists the threat of a massive fall towards Rs 890 levels, with interim support likely around Rs 1,100. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART    In case of a pullback rally, the upside on the stock for now seems capped around Rs 1,550 levels, with intermediate resistance at Rs 1,350 and Rs 1,420 levels.  ALSO READ:  Analysts rule out pre-budget market rally; Trump, Q3FY25 earnings in focus  Macrotech Developers (Lodha)  Current Price: Rs 1,088  Downside Risk: 19.1%  Support: Rs 1,090; Rs 1,000  Resistance: Rs 1,250; Rs 1,400  Lodha stock is seen testing the 20-MMA at Rs 1,090; below which the next key support stands at Rs 1,000-mark. As long as these support levels are protected the stock can bounce back to Rs 1,250 and Rs 1,400 levels. On the flip side, break and sustained trade below the 20-MMA shall open the doors for further fall towards Rs 880. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Godrej Properties  Current Price: Rs 2,250  Downside Risk: 18.2%  Support: Rs 2,210; Rs 2,040  Resistance: Rs 2,387; Rs 2,500  Godrej Properties stock is seen testing support at the 100-WMA at Rs 2,210. At present, the stock is seen trading below the 20-MMA, which stands at Rs 2,387. The long-term chart suggests that the stock can extend the fall and slide to Rs 1,840 levels, with interim support likely around Rs 2,040 levels. In case of a pullback rally, the stock may counter resistance around Rs 2,500 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  ALSO READ: PVR Inox, Lodha, Glaxo: Should you buy these 5 oversold stocks? Find out  Oberoi Realty  Current Price: Rs 1,828  Downside Risk: 8.3%  Support: Rs 1,746  Resistance: Rs 1,878; Rs 1,982  Oberoi Realty stock is on the verge of giving a downside breakout on the weekly scale, as it trades below the super trend line. A weekly close below Rs 1,878 shall confirm the same. In the process, the stock also fell out from the rising channel pattern, wherein the stock was making higher-highs and higher-lows on the weekly scale. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  For now, the stock is seen seeking support at its 50-WMA at Rs 1,746; below which the next notable support for the stock exists at Rs 1,677. In case these support levels are held, the stock can potentially bounce back to Rs 2,100 levels, with interim resistance likely around Rs 1,982. 

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First Published: Jan 23 2025 | 12:05 PM IST

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