Nifty poised to end another April, short F&O series higher; Details here

From down 8%, to up over 3% - the NSE Nifty 50 index seems poised to end higher for the 11th time in the last 13 April months; also a relatively shorter F&O series in terms of trading sessions.

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) benchmark - Nifty 50 index futures are set to extend its bonhomie, so-called friendly bias, with short futures & options (F&O) series - more particularly in the month of April over the last 13 years, as it is poised to end with gains.  A day prior to the April series expiry, the NSE Nifty was seen quoting 3.1 per cent or 737 points higher at 24,329 when compared to levels of 23,592 at the start of the F&O series on March 27.  Historical data shows that the Nifty has closed higher in 10 out of the last 12 April F&O series, and clocked an average gain of over 3 per cent. The April series tends to be among the shortest F&O series in the year owing to multiple trading holidays. This year 2025 the April series had just 16 trading sessions, with 4 stock market holidays. READ MORE  Despite the shorter F&O series, the month April saw considerable volatility in the stock market. The NSE Nifty 50 index at first plunged nearly 8 per cent amid the US tariff related worries to hit a low of 21,744 on April 7. The NSE benchmark, however, thereafter staged a resounding recovery and surged 12 per cent to a high of 24,359 on Wednesday, backed by renewed foreign institutional buying support and easing of trade worries.  Amid the market rally, the Nifty also conquered its 200-day Daily Moving Average (200-DMA) for the first time since early January 2025. The index is seen holding above its 200-DMA, which now stands at 24,052, for the last three trading sessions.  Technically, a weekly close above 24,169 on Friday will confirm a fresh breakout and open the doors for a likely extended rally towards 26,300 levels, shows chart. READ MORE 

  

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  Nifty short-term outlook  Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst at Angel One believes that the Nifty is seen trading in overbought conditions, hence advises against chasing momentum at higher levels.  The analyst sees immediate support for the Nifty around 24,150 – 24,100 levels; while key support is placed in the 24,000 – 23,900 zone, aligning with the 200-DMA and recent breakout levels.  Echoing similar views, Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates says that as long as the Nifty continues to hold above its 200-DMA, the broader structure remains intact.  On the upside, the Nifty can potentially rally towards 24,500–24,800 levels, the analyst adds and recommends traders to follow buy on dips strategy for the short term.    F&O expiry day cues  The F&O data indicates a moderately bullish posture as Put writers continue to outpace Call writers, suggesting bullish confidence, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.  Heavy open interest (OI) accumulation at the 24,500 strike Call indicates a near-term ceiling, while significant Put writing at the 24,000 strike reinforces a solid base just below current levels. Another notable observation is the gradual migration of Call writing to higher strike levels, reflecting an increasingly bullish outlook.  Meanwhile, the Put-Call Ratio has marginally declined from 1.06 to 1.04, still reflecting a favourable bias. Max pain remains anchored at 24,100, signalling that traders are positioning for consolidation just below current prices, though overhead resistance persists. 

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  FIIs, DIIs - trading positions in F&O  According to NSE F&O data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) hold 2 short bets in index futures for every long trade as of Wednesday. In comparison, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) are holding 3 long positions for every short bet.  Retail and proprietary traders are seen with a neutral stance, holding near about equal long and short positions in index futures.