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Preview: Will SBI Q3 profit rise or fall? Provisions hold key, say analysts

SBI Q3 results 2025: State Bank of India (SBI) is scheduled to report its Q3 results on Thursday, February 6

SBI

Nikita Vashisht New Delhi

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SBI Q3 preview: The largest government-owned bank, State Bank of India (SBI), is expected to report a strong set of results for the October-December quarter (Q3) of the current financial year 2024-25 (FY25).
 
According to analysts, the public sector bank (PSB) is estimated to report a double digit net profit growth on the back of healthy loan book expansion and stable asset quality.

SBI Q3 results date and time

State Bank of India (SBI) is scheduled to report its Q3 results on Thursday, February 6.
 
"This is to inform you that a meeting of the Central Board of the Bank will be held on Thursday, February 6, 2025, at Mumbai, inter-alia, to consider the financial results of the Bank for the quarter ended 31.12.2024," SBI said in a stock exchange filing on January 16, 2025.
 
 
  Further, SBI's Q3 Analyst Meet will be conducted on February 6, 2025, at 5.30 PM post Q3FY25 results at State Bank Bhavan Auditorium, it added.  ALSO READ: ITC Q3 preview: Cigarette volume may remain resilient; FMCG biz to grow 6%   Ahead of SBI Q3 results, SBI share price was trading 1 per cent lower at Rs 758 per share on the BSE on Thuraday. By comparison, the BSE Sensex is down 0.38 per cent at 12:45 PM.  Thus far in 2025, SBI share price has slipped 4.2 per cent on the BSE as against 1.2 per cent decline in the benchmark Sensex index. 
 

SBI Q3 results expectations:

 

Nomura

Global brokerage Nomura expects SBI to report a solid growth of 86 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in net profit. It pegs SBI Q3 net profit at Rs 17,010 crore as against Q3FY24 net profit of Rs 9,160 crore. On a sequential basis, Nomura expects Q3 net profit to decline 7 per cent from Rs 18,330 crore.
 
Operationally, the brokerage expects SBI's net interest income (NII) to grow 7 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 42,560 crore from Rs 39,820 crore and 2 per cent Q-o-Q from Rs 41,620 crore.
 
Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), too, is expected to surge 30 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 26,450 crore as against Rs 20,340-crore PPOP in Q3FY24. In Q2FY25, PPOP was Rs 29,290 crore.  ALSO READ: Britannia's Q3 PAT likely to slip 5% YoY; margins may contract: Analysts 
 
"We expect SBI's Q3 deposit growth to be soft, rising 9 per cent Y-o-Y/1 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 51.94 trillion. Loan growth, however, is projected to be healthy at 14 per cent Y-o-Y/4 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 40.11 trillion. We expect net interest margin (NIM) to decline 10bps Y-o-Y/2bps Q-o-Q to 3.1 per cent, aided by re-pricing of MCLR loans. Credit cost are expected to remain under control at 0.4 per cent,:" Nomura said in its Q3 results preview report.
 

Citi Research

Citi Research estimates domestic advances growth to align with system average growth, at 13 per cent Y-o-Y/3 per cent Q-o-Q, to Rs 39.75 trillion. The bank's focus towards more secured products may continue in Q3FY25, it added.
 
Besides, it expects SBI's Q3 deposit book to stand at Rs 52.48 trillion, up 10 per cent Y-o-Y/3 per cent Q-o-Q.
 
Comfortable loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) may allow its deposit growth to lag advances growth, Citi noted.
 
"Post contraction of 8bps in domestic NIM in Q2FY25, we expect SBI Q3 NIM to be broadly stable during the quarter (as MCLR hike benefit over past 6 months may reflect in Q3). However, a fall in global benchmark rates may put some pressure on overseas NIMs," the research note said.  ALSO READ: Hero MotoCorp Q3 Preview: Net profit may climb up to Rs 1,130 crore YoY
 
It pegs NII at Rs 42,725 crore (up 7 per cent Y-o-Y/3 per cent Q-o-Q); PPOP at Rs 25,786 crore (up 17 per cent Y-o-Y/down 12 per cent Q-o-Q); net profit at Rs 15,097 crore (up 65 per cent Y-o-Y/down 18 per cent Q-o-Q).
 
NIM is seen at 3 per cent, down 8bps Y-o-Y/3bps Q-o-Q.
 
On the asset quality front, Citi Research expects slippages to be contained, along with resolution and pull-back of SMA-1/2.
Trends in slippages from unsecured personal loans (Xpress Credit) will be key.
 
Citi Research analysts anticipate SBI to drive further cost-to-income (C/I) ratio efficiency by shoring up income and improving productivity.
 

Prabhudas Lilladher

The brokerage has the most cautious estimate for SBI Q3 2025 results. It expects SBI Q3 profit to rise just 7 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 15,463.2 crore. This would be lower by 15.6 per cent Q-o-Q.
 
Q3 NII growth, too, is seen muted at 7.5 per cent Y-o-Y/2.8 per cent Qo-Q at Rs 42,795.2 crore. Q3 PPOP, on the other hand, is anticipated at Rs 25,627.3 crore, up 26 per cent Y-o-Y/down 12.5 per cent Q-o-Q.
 
Provisions, Prabhudas Lilladher analysts said, are expected to increase by 5 per cent Q-o-Q/588 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 4,731 crore, leading to a fall in PAT. Asset quality, in terms of gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio, is expected to worsen by 7 bps Q-o-Q to 2.06 per cent, while credit cost is expected to increase by 1bps to 0.48 per cent.
 

Nuvama Institutional Equities

This brokerage, too, has subdued NII estimates for SBI Q3 results. It expects SBI Q3 NII at Rs 42,120 crore, up around 6 per cent Y-o-Y and 1.2 per cent Q-o-Q.
 
Including Trading Gains of Rs 3,000 crore (up 20 per cent Y-o-Y/down 35.4 per cent Q-o-Q), Other Income of Rs 9,830 crore (up 9.8 per cent Y-o-Y/down 7.5 per cent Q-o-Q), and Non-interest Income of Rs 12,830 crore (up 12 per cent Y-o-Y/down 16 per cent Q-o-Q), Total Revenue is projected at Rs 54,950 crore (up 7.2 per cent Y-o-Y/down 3.4 per cent Q-o-Q).
 
Nuvama estimates SBI Q3 PPOP to come at Rs 27,590 crore (up 109 per cent Y-o-Y/down 6 per cent Q-o-Q), and net profit at Rs 17,090 crore (up 86.5 per cent Y-o-Y/down 6.8 per cent Q-o-Q).
 
This brokerage, also, expects provisions to surge 554 per cent Y-o-Y/flat Q-o-Q at Rs 4,500 crore.
 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services

MOFSL forecasts SBI's provisions to remain elevated in Q3FY25, at Rs 5,160 crore, limiting net profit growth at 77 per cent Y-o-Y at Rs 16,240 crore.
 
It expects cost ratios to be slightly higher in the quarter, but asset quality may remain contained. GNPA ratio, MOFSL said, may improve to 2.04 per cent from 2.13 per cent. NNPA ratio, meanwhile, is seen at 0.5 per cent vs 0.53 per cent Q-o-Q.
 
NIM is expected to be flat. 

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First Published: Feb 04 2025 | 2:43 PM IST

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