Strong Q3FY26 presales drive bullish call for Lodha Developers from Nomura

Lodha Developers, Nomura said, has maintained its FY26E presales guidance of ₹21,000 crore, implying a Q4FY26F presales target of ₹6,500 crore (up 35 per cent Y-o-Y)

Global brokerage firm Nomura continues to remain bullish on the real estate player Lodha Developers and has maintained its Buy rating on the scrip, citing the company's strong Q3FY26 presales and business development activities as key drivers of its positive outlook.

 

Akash Gupta, research analyst at Nomura, sees over a 30 per cent upside potential for Lodha's stock and has set a target price of ₹1,450 per share.

 

Lodha Developers provided its Q3FY26 operational update on January 6, 2026, revealing a record-high quarterly presales of ₹5,620 crore, reflecting a 25 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and 23 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) growth. This figure was in line with the brokerage’s estimate of ₹5,500 crore. The company has already achieved nearly 70 per cent of its full-year FY26 presales guidance year-to-date (YTD) by Q3FY26.

 

 

According to Nomura, Lodha Developers has maintained its FY26E presales guidance of ₹21,000 crore, implying a 4QFY26F presales target of ₹6,500 crore (up 35 per cent Y-o-Y). Additionally, the company reported new business development (BD) with a Gross Development Value (GDV) of ₹33,800 crore in Q3FY26. The total new BD achieved YTD by Q3FY26 is ₹58,800 crore, surpassing its FY26F guidance of ₹25,000 crore. Nomura believes this positions the company for strong growth in FY27F.

Q3FY26 collections dip, but outlook remains positive

Collections for Q3FY26 were down 17 per cent Y-o-Y, largely due to one-off factors, said Nomura. The company expects this to stabilise moving forward. As a result, the brokerage believes that the annual operating cash flow (OCF) generation for the year may fall short of the company’s guidance of ₹7,700 crore. However, the brokerage does not see this as a major concern.

 

"We believe this is not a cause for concern as net debt/equity remains well below 0.5x as of Q3FY26-end," said Nomura in its report.

Meanwhile, here are the other key takeaways from the quarterly update:

Presales: Lodha achieved its highest-ever quarterly presales of ₹5,620 crore in Q3FY26, representing 25 per cent Y-o-Y and 23 per cent Q-o-Q growth. The company has already reached 70 per cent of its FY26F presales target of ₹21,000 crore. Nomura expects Lodha to achieve the 4QFY26F target of ₹6,500 crore (+35 per cent Y-o-Y) based on strong momentum in sustenance sales and a significant launch pipeline.

 

Collections: Collections for the quarter were ₹3,560 crore, down 17 per cent Y-o-Y. The decline, Nomura said, was primarily due to the ₹600-700 crore impact from one-off large land and office sales, a shift in the sales mix from ready-to-move (RTM) inventory to ongoing projects, and delays in achieving collection milestones.  Nomura expects collections to improve in the coming quarters. "Although OCF generation for the year may fall below the company’s guidance, it remains confident in the company’s overall financial health due to a low debt burden."

 

Business development: Lodha added five new projects in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), NCR, and Bengaluru, with a total GDV of ₹33,800 crore. This brings the YTD business development figure to ₹58,800 crore, significantly surpassing its FY26F guidance of ₹25,000 crore. Nomura sees this as an indicator of strong growth visibility for FY27F. The company also launched its pilot projects in NCR, which are being developed on a joint venture basis.

 

Net debt: Despite its significant investments in business development, Lodha’s net debt stood at ₹6,170 crore, which Nomura said is well below its ceiling of 0.5x net debt/equity as of end-Q3FY26.

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