Voda Idea stock hits over 13-month high; zooms 75% in 3 months; here's why

In the past three trading days, the stock price of Vodafone Idea has rallied 12 per cent after the company announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26).

Share price of Vodafone Idea

 

Shares of Vodafone Idea (Vi) hit an over 13-month high of ₹10.68, gaining 3 per cent on the BSE in Thursday’s intra-day trade. 

 

In the past three trading days, the stock price of the telecom service provider has rallied 12 per cent after the company announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26). 

 

In the past one week, the Vodafone Idea stock has surged 15 per cent, as compared to 2.5 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex. Further, in the past six months, it soared 54 per cent, as against a 4.5 per cent gain in the benchmark index. The market price of Vi has bounced back 75 per cent from its 52-week low of ₹6.12 touched on August 14, 2025.  READ STOCK MARKET UPDATES LIVE

 

Why Vi shares outperformed the market?

 

Vi narrowed its consolidated net loss during September quarter (Q2FY26) to ₹5,584 crore. The company had posted a net loss of ₹7,176 crore in the same period last year (Q2FY25). The company narrowed losses owing to a drop in finance costs, which the company said came from settlements from vendors which were earlier provisioned into its accounts. Lower forex fluctuation also contributed to the improved financials.

 

The customer average revenue per user (ARPU) rose to ₹180 in Q2FY26 compared to ₹166 in Q2FY25, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 8.7 per cent supported primarily by customer upgrades and tariff increase. The company’s total subscriber base stood at 196.7 million. Vi said it closed the quarter with 127.8 million 4G/5G subscribers, up from 125.9 million in the same period last year.

 

Meanwhile, Vi is hopeful of a ‘’long-term solution’’ from the government, the telco told analysts in an earnings call on Tuesday. This follows the recent Supreme Court decision to allow the Centre to reassess Vi’s dues linked to adjusted gross revenue (AGR) up to FY17.  ALSO READ | Vodafone Idea can rise up to 50% from here, Airtel may gain 9%: Tech charts

 

“We welcome the Hon’ble Supreme Court’s judgement dated October 27, 2025 and November 3, 2025 whereby the Union of India is permitted to reconsider and take an appropriate decision with reference to the additional AGR demand raised for the period up to the financial year 2016-2017 and comprehensively reassessing and reconciling all AGR dues, including interest and penalty, up to the said financial year,” Vi said on the AGR update. The management said the company is in discussion with the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) for next steps on this matter.

Brokerages view on Vi Shares

 

Analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities raised target price to ₹11 (from ₹9.5) assuming ~₹16,000 crore relief from the government in relation to VIL’s AGR dues. The brokerage firm maintains ADD on Vi. Sharper-than-expected tariff hikes, strong subscriber growth and significant debt waiver from the government and Vi’s subscriber growth being significantly above our assumption are upside risks to our estimates and valuation. However, there could be a downside risk to brokerage estimates/valuation if a) government provides lower AGR relief/waiver; b) Vi is not able to arrest its subscriber decline; and/or c) tariff hikes are lower than expected.

 

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), the recent Supreme Court judgement allowing the Government of India (GoI) to re-evaluate the AGR dues for Vi is a positive outcome and could lead to its long-pending debt raise. However, besides the potential reduction in AGR dues (brokerage firm assumes ~50 per cent waiver), Vi also needs favorable payment terms for both AGR as well as spectrum dues, along with tariff hikes and a reduction in the competitive intensity on customer acquisitions, to ensure a sustained revival.  ALSO READ | Axiscades share locks in 5% upper circuit as Q2 profit nearly doubles 

The brokerage firm in the Q2 result update said that they note that the latter two factors are not entirely in Vi’s control, and analysts would expect competitive intensity to increase if Vi becomes competitive on subscriber additions.

 

The slight increase in subscriber decline and churn was attributed to seasonality. However, management noted recent interventions such as Vi’s non-stop unlimited data offering, its guarantee of two extra days on recharge over ₹199, and revamped family postpaid offerings are driving better customer retention and improved traction in terms of data usage on Vi’s network, MOFSL said.